Ivory Coast's Cocoa Crisis: Weather Woes and Economic Impact

Ivory Coast anticipates one of the worst mid-crop cocoa harvests in 15 years, with production potentially dropping to 300,000 metric tons. Unfavorable weather is stalling harvest, potentially driving cocoa prices higher. Local grinders will be prioritized for the reduced crop to maintain production levels.

Ivory Coast is bracing for a historically poor mid-crop cocoa harvest this season, with production forecasts dropping to 300,000 metric tons, significantly below the 500,000-ton annual average. This grim outlook stems from adverse climatic conditions that have crippled cocoa development in all 13 of the country's growing regions, according to both regulatory and industry sources.

Climatic adversities, specifically a combination of lack of rain and extreme heat since November, have delayed the anticipated April start for the mid-crop harvest until June. The shortfall in cocoa could exert upward pressure on prices, which are already near record highs after a significant surge last year. Such conditions threaten to provoke considerable shelf price increases in the chocolate industry by 2025.

The local cocoa regulator has contracted only 250,000 metric tons for export, opting for a cautious approach. Meanwhile, all expected mid-crop yield is earmarked for local grinders to ensure operational continuity. This situation, described by farmers and middlemen as unprecedented, results from a near-total absence of cocoa flowers and pods due to persistently harsh weather.

(With inputs from agencies.)