Argentina's Historic Trade Surplus Fueled by Energy and Grain Exports

In 2024, Argentina is expected to record its largest trade surplus, driven by expanded energy and grain exports under President Javier Milei. Analysts anticipate a year-end surplus over $18 billion. The surplus is due to strategic use of shale reserves and eased currency controls but may narrow in 2025.

Argentina is on track to achieve its largest trade surplus in history in 2024, as per a Reuters analyst poll released on Friday. This economic milestone is largely driven by the efforts of libertarian President Javier Milei, who has focused on bolstering grains and energy exports during his first year in office.

Since taking office in December 2023, President Milei has committed to transforming Argentina into a net energy exporter, capitalizing on the vast shale reserves in the Vaca Muerta region of Patagonia. In addition to energy, grains exports have increased, facilitated by relaxed currency controls and favorable weather conditions. Argentina continues to be a leading exporter of processed soy oil and meal, corn, wheat, and beef, and is rich in lithium essential for electric batteries.

According to the Reuters poll, analysts estimate a year-end trade surplus ranging from $18 billion to $19 billion, surpassing the previous record of $16.89 billion set in 2009. From January to November, the country reported a $17.20 billion trade surplus, reversing a $7.94 billion deficit from the first 11 months of 2023. Despite this success, the trade surplus is expected to narrow in 2025, as imports rise and the economy strengthens under Milei's austerity measures.

(With inputs from agencies.)