Water Wars and Climate Change: Addressing Resource Conflicts in the Horn of Africa

Climate change and population growth in the Horn of Africa exacerbate water scarcity, intensifying local conflicts. Effective groundwater management demands inclusive stakeholder engagement, integration of local governance, and conflict-sensitive approaches to ensure equitable resource access and community resilience.

In the Horn of Africa, climate variability and population growth have led to increased resource scarcity, particularly of water and pasture, exacerbating local conflicts. This dynamic, explored in a study conducted by the Rift Valley Institute and the Centre for Humanitarian Change, commissioned by the World Bank, reveals that pastoralist livelihoods, heavily dependent on these resources, become precarious as climate change intensifies droughts, leading to competition and tensions among various groups. The study, supported by the Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) Program, highlights that this competition for water can result in overcrowding at water sources, often escalating conflicts even during the rainy season when uncertainty about future resource access remains high. While water access can intensify existing disputes, it is rarely the sole cause of conflict. Historical tensions, political manipulation, and uneven resource distribution often play more significant roles. Political actors may exploit these conflicts for gain, favoring certain groups over others in the allocation of resources. However, shared water management, particularly through customary institutions, has sometimes fostered peaceful coexistence, as seen between the Gabbra and Borana in southern Ethiopia. Groundwater development, if managed well, can contribute to peace and community resilience.

The Pitfalls of External Interventions

External interventions often fail when they do not consider local socio-political dynamics. New water projects, such as boreholes, can inadvertently cause conflicts if land ownership and local governance structures are not properly understood. The study conducted field research in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia, revealing that the location of a new borehole is generally decided by hydro-geological surveys that seldom consider whether the land on which the borehole is drilled belongs to the community for whom the water supply is intended. Furthermore, the presence of internally displaced persons and refugees adds strain to water resources, sometimes causing tensions with host communities. In Kenya, host communities often feel neglected where there is an established refugee camp, leading to perceptions of bias in water provision.

Standard Models for Water Development Fall Short

The standard models for water development in these areas often do not work effectively. Projects frequently overlook the need for inclusive consultations with all stakeholders, including private sector actors and migrants. For instance, groundwater development projects often fail to engage all stakeholders in consultations and consequently do not consider the needs of all users. These models often fail to integrate climate resilience or conflict sensitivity into their design, which can undermine the sustainability of water supplies. Groundwater development does not always produce resilience outcomes, as many projects do not consider the potential negative impacts on climate change adaptation or the need for conflict analysis.

Complex Water Governance Requires Pragmatic Solutions

Water governance in the Horn of Africa is complex, involving a mix of formal institutions, customary authorities, NGOs, and the private sector. Customary management systems, led by community elders, are crucial for negotiating resource access and resolving conflicts. These systems often work in partnership with formal institutions, but the latter face challenges such as budget constraints and inadequate infrastructure, limiting their effectiveness. In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, formal institutions like woreda water offices and county water offices have the official mandate to develop water supplies, but in practice, this role is often filled by NGOs, private individuals, or community leaders. The study points out that politics plays a role in exacerbating conflict, using water as an excuse, with tensions heightened by politicians or clan leaders favoring one group over another in the distribution of services.

Marginalized Voices in Water Management

In Somalia, public boreholes are managed either by water user committees or solely by customary institutions, with the latter often having more control. The private sector also plays a significant role in water provision, but without effective regulation, this can lead to inequitable access, especially during dry seasons when water prices soar. In Kenya, there is a trend towards privatizing and commercializing larger groundwater supplies. This can result in uneven access to water resources due to economic disparities, and without effective regulation, water service providers can exploit scarcity by inflating prices. Development of boreholes without establishing pro-poor tariffs and effective regulation can reduce water access for the most vulnerable individuals. Women, youth, and minority clans are typically marginalized in water management decision-making despite their crucial roles in water sourcing and maintenance. Women, in particular, bear the brunt of water-related labor and are vulnerable to gender-based violence, yet they have little say in governance processes. The study emphasizes that while improving access to water resources can contribute to reducing water-based conflicts, development actors should pay more attention to understanding and working with conflict dynamics, politics, and resource ownership. It advocates for fostering flexible governance that combines formal and informal institutions, ensuring broad stakeholder engagement, and making water-sharing agreements clearer and more equitable. Effective groundwater management requires a nuanced understanding of local contexts and inclusive, participatory approaches to governance to address these complex challenges and ensure sustainable and peaceful water resource management.