Rouble Weakens Amidst Ukraine Conflict and Western Sanctions

The Russian rouble weakened for the sixth consecutive day following Ukraine's unexpected attack on Russia's Kursk region. Despite higher oil prices, the rouble has declined significantly against the dollar, euro, and yuan. This comes amid Western sanctions on the Moscow Exchange and clearance agent.

The Russian rouble continued to weaken on Tuesday for the sixth consecutive trading session, following Ukraine's unexpected attack a week ago on Russia's Kursk region. By 0800 GMT, the rouble was 1.6% weaker on the day at 92.50 to the dollar, according to LSEG data. It has lost 8.5% since the start of the attack on Aug. 6.

Trading in major currencies shifted to the over-the-counter (OTC) market, obscuring pricing data, after Western sanctions on the Moscow Exchange and its clearing agent, the National Clearing Centre, were introduced on July 12. One-day rouble-dollar futures, which trade on the Moscow Exchange and serve as guidance for the OTC market rates, were down 0.4% on Tuesday to 89.60. During the previous day's trading, the futures lost 2.5%.

The central bank's official exchange rate, which it calculates using the OTC data, was set at 89.93 on Monday, about 6% weaker since the start of the attack. The weakening of the rouble against the dollar and euro has continued despite support from higher oil prices and increased net daily sales of yuan by the central bank and finance ministry.

According to an analysis of the OTC market, the rouble weakened by 0.6% to 12.00 against the Chinese yuan, which has become the most traded foreign currency in Moscow. The rouble was at 12.00 to yuan for the first time since July 22. It was down 2.4% at 101.90 against the euro for the first time since Feb. 23, breaking below the key level of 100 roubles to the European currency, according to LSEG data. The central bank's official exchange rate stood at 96.69 roubles to the euro.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 0.2% at $81.88 a barrel on concerns about demand after OPEC cut its forecast for demand growth in 2024.

(With inputs from agencies.)