Navigating an Uncertain Future: How Trade Unions Are Using Foresight to Stay Relevant

The ILO report, “Using Foresight to Think and Act Upon an Uncertain Future World of Work,” explores how trade unions worldwide are using foresight tools to address the many uncertainties affecting the labor market. From Southern Africa to Europe, unions are embracing long-term strategies that allow them to adapt to rapid changes such as automation, digitalization, and economic instability. With a focus on inclusivity and leadership engagement, foresight helps unions prepare for multiple futures and ensures their continued relevance in an increasingly volatile world.

As the world of work faces a whirlwind of changes, from automation to demographic shifts, trade unions worldwide are turning to strategic foresight to secure their future relevance. The International Labour Organization (ILO) working paper, "Using Foresight to Think and Act Upon an Uncertain Future World of Work," outlines how unions are adapting to an increasingly volatile labor market through foresight tools and methods. The report highlights examples from regions like Southern Africa, Europe, and Asia, showing how unions are rethinking their strategies to confront growing uncertainties.

The Changing World of Work

In recent years, the workplace has seen a rapid transformation. Advances in automation, digitalization, and the green economy are reshaping industries at an unprecedented pace. Add to this the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and environmental disasters, and you have what experts call a "poly-crisis." These simultaneous challenges have placed immense pressure on workers and their unions, requiring innovative strategies to adapt.

For many trade unions, strategic foresight has emerged as a solution. Unlike traditional planning methods, foresight helps organizations imagine multiple possible futures rather than just predicting the most likely one. By doing so, unions can develop flexible strategies, staying nimble in a world where the only constant is change.

Strategic Foresight: A New Approach to Union Leadership

Strategic foresight is gaining traction across regions, with case studies from various countries offering insights into its effectiveness. According to the ILO report, countries like Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Ethiopia are using foresight tools to formalize the informal economy and revitalize struggling unions.

For instance, unions in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan focused on formalizing the informal sector, which employs many workers. By using foresight tools like scenario-building and backcasting, union leaders devised strategies to increase representation in sectors like transport, construction, and tourism, where informal work dominates. In Ethiopia, where economic instability and internal conflicts have hampered union efforts, foresight has helped leaders develop strategies to negotiate collective agreements that benefit both formal and informal workers.

Global Lessons from Trade Union Revitalization

One of the most significant foresight efforts took place in Southern Africa. The Southern Africa Trade Union Coordination Council (SATUCC) used foresight tools to prepare for their Congress, incorporating key themes like regional integration and just transition. The unions explored different scenarios, from fast growth in union membership to the risk of decline due to internal fragmentation. Foresight allowed them to visualize multiple outcomes, helping them prepare strategies to ensure growth while addressing challenges such as violence, harassment, and declining membership.

In the Arab region, unions focused on building partnerships with community-based organizations and adapting to technological changes. This strategic partnership is crucial in a region where formal union membership is often low, but many workers are organized informally.

Meanwhile, in Asia and the Pacific, foresight workshops enabled unions to think about the future of work on digital labor platforms. With the rise of the gig economy and online platforms like food delivery services, many workers in the region are turning to these new employment models. Unions have started to position themselves as advocates for workers’ rights in these emerging sectors, ensuring protection for gig workers, who often lack traditional benefits like health care or retirement plans.

In Europe, the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI) developed long-term strategies to build future leadership within unions. A notable case is Belgium’s ACV Pulse union, which engaged in horizon scanning to identify 16 trends that could impact their sectors by 2040. They used these insights to create scenarios for union growth and innovation, positioning themselves to adapt to changing political landscapes and shifts in worker demographics.

Lessons for the Future

The ILO report provides critical lessons for unions looking to adopt foresight strategies. First, leadership buy-in is crucial. Without the support of top leaders, foresight efforts are unlikely to succeed. Engaging leaders from the start, ensuring their participation, and integrating their feedback into the planning process will increase the chances of successful foresight implementation.

Second, foresight works best when it involves diverse perspectives. By bringing in voices from different layers of the organization—whether it’s youth leaders, women, or workers from the informal economy—unions can ensure that their strategies are inclusive and reflective of the challenges faced by all workers.

Lastly, foresight should be integrated into union structures for the long term. This requires creating an enabling environment within the union, where strategic thinking is seen as an investment, not a distraction from day-to-day operations.

As trade unions face the pressures of a rapidly changing world, strategic foresight offers a pathway to future-proofing their organizations. By using foresight tools to think long-term, unions can remain relevant in an uncertain world, safeguarding workers’ rights and adapting to the many challenges that lie ahead.

The ILO’s “Using Foresight to Think and Act Upon an Uncertain Future World of Work” provides a roadmap for unions to experiment with foresight, offering valuable lessons from around the globe. As these methods become more widely adopted, unions will be better positioned to navigate the complexities of the future world of work.