WMO Predicts 60% Chance of La Niña Conditions by Late 2024, Amid Rising Global Temperatures

Despite the recent neutral conditions between El Niño and La Niña, extreme weather events like heatwaves and heavy rainfall have persisted globally.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecasted a 60% probability of La Niña conditions emerging by the end of 2024, according to its latest update. Predictions indicate a 55% likelihood of transitioning from current neutral conditions to La Niña between September and November 2024, increasing to 60% from October 2024 to February 2025. The possibility of El Niño redeveloping during this period is minimal.

La Niña, a natural climate phenomenon, involves the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which affects global weather patterns, including winds, pressure, and rainfall. La Niña typically brings climate impacts opposite to El Niño, particularly in tropical regions. However, these natural events are happening against the backdrop of human-induced climate change, which is driving global temperatures higher and worsening extreme weather patterns.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that while a potential La Niña event could provide short-term cooling, it will not alter the long-term trend of rising global temperatures caused by greenhouse gases. "Since June 2023, we have witnessed exceptional global land and sea surface temperatures. Even a La Niña event will not reverse the warming trajectory," she said.

Despite the recent neutral conditions between El Niño and La Niña, extreme weather events like heatwaves and heavy rainfall have persisted globally. This underscores the importance of WMO’s Early Warnings for All initiative, which focuses on providing timely climate forecasts to enable preventive action. The 2023-24 El Niño peaked as one of the five strongest on record, dissipating by early 2024, but its impacts, alongside extreme weather conditions, have continued.

The WMO emphasizes that seasonal forecasts for La Niña and El Niño are essential tools for predicting global climate impacts and supporting early warning systems.