Continuous Welfare Monitoring in Zimbabwe: Insights from High-Frequency COVID-19 Surveys

The high-frequency household survey in Zimbabwe, conducted by ZIMSTAT with World Bank and UNICEF support, revealed significant pandemic-induced disruptions in employment, school enrollment, food security, and poverty, highlighting the need for a continuous welfare monitoring system. The survey's success underscores the importance of timely data for effective policy responses to future crises.

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the critical need for a continuous welfare monitoring system in Zimbabwe. In response, the Zimbabwe Statistics Office (ZIMSTAT), with support from the World Bank and UNICEF, launched a high-frequency household survey to track the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. Conducted from July 2020 to January 2023 through nine rounds of phone surveys, this initiative provided crucial insights into how COVID-19 affected various aspects of life in Zimbabwe, including employment, school enrollment, food security, and poverty.

Impact on School Enrollment and Learning

The surveys revealed significant disruptions in school enrollment, especially during the early phase of the pandemic when schools were closed. About 9% of children who were in school before the pandemic were not enrolled by early 2021, with teacher absence and fear of infection cited as primary reasons. There was a notable urban-rural divide, with urban children more likely to engage in remote learning activities compared to their rural counterparts. This disparity highlighted challenges such as limited access to digital learning tools and poor network connectivity in rural areas. The data also underscored the long-term implications of school closures on human capital development, future earnings, and social mobility.

Employment and Economic Recovery

Employment was severely impacted by lockdown measures, with over 20% of employed individuals ceasing work due to mobility restrictions. The recovery was gradual but showed signs of improvement by early 2021. However, the impact was uneven, with urban areas experiencing higher job losses than rural areas. This discrepancy was primarily due to the nature of jobs in urban settings, which were more susceptible to disruptions. Urban workers, particularly those in the service sector, faced significant challenges, with many losing jobs in sectors like wholesale, retail, and education services. The surveys indicated that while employment gradually recovered in urban areas, it struggled to return to pre-pandemic levels in rural regions.

Rising Poverty and Food Insecurity

The surveys also provided essential data on poverty trends, showing a sharp increase in food poverty from 38% in 2019 to 49% in September 2020. This rise was attributed to a combination of factors, including increased prices of food and other necessities, income loss due to economic contraction, and poor agricultural production resulting from inadequate rainfall during the 2019/2020 growing season. Although economic activities and improved harvests led to a decline in poverty rates in subsequent years, the data highlighted the population's vulnerability to economic and environmental shocks. Food insecurity was another major concern, with 72% of households experiencing severe or moderate food insecurity in July 2020, a significant increase from the previous year. The situation improved in 2021 due to better harvests but remained a pressing issue in 2022 due to factors like high food inflation, increased fertilizer prices, and supply disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Public Programs and Vaccine Hesitancy

The surveys also monitored the implementation of public programs, revealing limited expansion of social assistance coverage during the pandemic. The largest category of support was in-kind food distribution, a scheme that predated the pandemic. Even this low coverage was not well-targeted to the poorest and most vulnerable populations. However, the surveys detected higher coverage of emergency cash transfers in urban areas, consistent with the government's and UNICEF's efforts to provide cash support to vulnerable urban households. The Pfumvudza/Intwasa program, designed to mitigate low agricultural productivity and food insecurity, showed mixed results. While the program successfully increased yields for participating households, gaps in implementation were noted, such as inconsistent provision of extension services and training.

In addition to socioeconomic indicators, the surveys tracked public attitudes and behaviors, including vaccine hesitancy and fear of contagion. Initially, a significant portion of the population was hesitant to get vaccinated, but this hesitancy decreased as vaccine distribution increased. By August 2022, only 5% of the population expressed unwillingness to get vaccinated, down from 15-18% in early 2021. The surveys also recorded the public's perception of vaccine distribution fairness, which improved as vaccination coverage expanded, reaching 77% by August 2022.

Overall, the high-frequency surveys demonstrated both the necessity and feasibility of a continuous welfare monitoring system in Zimbabwe. They provided timely data to inform policy decisions and highlighted the importance of such a system for future crises. The success of these surveys relied on national ownership, a flexible survey structure, and cost-effectiveness. Moving forward, establishing a continuous monitoring system, supported by a robust institutional framework, will be crucial for timely and effective policy responses to socioeconomic challenges in Zimbabwe.