Israel's Calculative Retaliation Strategy Against Hezbollah Amid Rising Tensions

Israel aims to retaliate against Hezbollah for a rocket strike that killed 12 in the Golan Heights while avoiding an all-out war. Israeli officials suggest the response will be limited but significant. The ongoing conflict has escalated hostilities at the Israel-Lebanon border, prompting international calls for de-escalation.

Israel seeks to retaliate against Hezbollah following a rocket strike that killed 12 children in the Golan Heights, two Israeli officials reported on Monday. Lebanon is bracing for a response as Israel plans for a few days of fighting after the attack on a Druze village sports field.

An unnamed senior defense official and a diplomatic source indicated that Israel's retaliation aims to avoid escalating into a full-blown war. The diplomatic source remarked, 'The estimation is that the response will not lead to an all-out war. That would not be in our interest at this point.'

The tension follows blame from Israel and the U.S. on Hezbollah for the strike, which the group denies. The incident intensifies concerns over cross-border hostilities potentially spiraling into a more destructive conflict.

On Sunday, Israel's security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to decide on the retaliatory 'manner and timing.' Israel's largest newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, reported the response would be 'limited but significant,' possibly targeting infrastructure, weapons depots, or high-ranking Hezbollah commanders.

The clashes arise from ongoing Gaza conflict hostilities, marking the worst Israel-Hezbollah engagement since their 2006 war. Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, has linked its rocket attacks to supporting Palestinians, promising to cease fire only if Israel halts its Gaza offensive. The border conflict has displaced thousands on both sides.

In a call with Israeli President Isaac Herzog, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the need to prevent the conflict from escalating and discussed diplomatic solutions to facilitate a ceasefire in Gaza and release hostages held there.

Meanwhile, an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon killed two and wounded three on Monday, marking the first fatalities in Lebanon since the weekend incident. A Lebanese civil defense official reported an infant among the wounded, while Israel's military confirmed downing a drone that crossed from Lebanon into Western Galilee.

Flight disruptions at Beirut's international airport have occurred due to the potential Israeli response. Both Israel and Hezbollah appear keen to avoid a full-scale war while exchanging fire since October.

Hezbollah, denying responsibility for the fatal rocket, stated it had targeted a military site in the Golan Heights, an area annexed by Israel after the 1967 Middle East war.

(With inputs from agencies.)