Emerging Markets Brace for Central Bank Moves and Political Shifts

Caution prevailed in emerging markets ahead of central bank policy decisions and South African cabinet appointments. Key currencies and equity indices fluctuated, influenced by political developments and new sanctions on Russia. Investors remain focused on bond yields and potential outperforming assets despite economic volatility.

Caution dominated the mood across emerging markets on Monday, ahead of local central bank policy decisions this week, while investors awaited cabinet appointments in South Africa and assessed the impact of the latest sanctions on Russia. MSCI's index tracking EM stocks slipped 0.3%, while an index tracking currencies was flat.

Turkey's lira slipped 0.3% against the dollar, trading at near all-time lows, with economists expecting the local central bank to hold interest rates at 50% later in the week. The Czech koruna was flat against the euro ahead of the regional central bank's decision on Thursday where borrowing costs are expected to be reduced by 25 basis points to 5%.

Monetary policy decisions are also due in the Philippines, Jamaica and Mongolia. In South Africa, the rand slipped 0.7% after trading flat for nearly three straight sessions, while the yield on the country's benchmark 2030 government bond climbed over 11 basis points to 9.8% as traders awaited the newly formed government of national unity's (GNU) cabinet appointments.

Paul McNamara, investment director at GAM Investments, said that with valuations cheaper than peers, South African assets have potential to outperform. However, "any new government will have very limited political capital for 'orthodox' policies... the plan and personnel are likely to be given a pass and concerns are about what can be realistically implemented."

South Africa's currency and equity index have recovered from losses in early June, following national election results where the African National Congress lost the parliamentary majority it had held for three decades. Elsewhere, the European Union agreed on a new package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, including a ban on reloading Russian liquefied natural gas in the EU for further shipment to third countries. The rouble strengthened to 87.95 against the greenback, as per LSEG data.

Investors tracking the JPMorgan Emerging Market debt index are bullish on India and had allocated 3.6% of holdings to the country's bonds as of end-May, ahead of their inclusion on the index this week, Morgan Stanley said. The yield on the South Asian country's benchmark 10-year bond stood at 6.95%. Elsewhere, the World Bank announced $700 million of budget support for Egypt designed to help the north African country boost private sector participation, macroeconomic and fiscal resilience, and a greener growth trajectory. The Egyptian pound weakened 0.7%.

Ghana's cedi was little changed after the west African country's government reached an agreement in principle with bondholder groups to restructure its international debt. (Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru) For TOP NEWS across emerging markets

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