Nike Shares Tumble Amid Forecasted Sales Drop and Market Share Struggles

Nike's shares dropped by 15% premarket on Friday following a surprising forecast of a sales decline in fiscal 2025, raising investor concerns. The sportswear giant is facing strong competition from newer brands like Hoka and On. The company is taking steps to innovate and cut costs, but challenges remain.

Nike shares slumped 15% premarket on Friday as a forecast for a surprise drop in annual sales amplified investor concerns about the pace of the sportswear giant's efforts to stem market share losses to upstart brands such as On and Hoka.

The company on Thursday projected a mid-single-digit percentage fall in fiscal 2025 revenue, compared to analysts' estimates of a near 1% rise, dragging shares of rivals and sportswear retailers across Europe, UK and U.S. on Friday. British sportswear retailer JD Sports fell as much as 6.6% and Germany's Puma lost 4%, while Adidas was flat after briefly rising nearly 2%.

"Nike shares are headed for a stay in the proverbial penalty box until new product innovations actually start to manifest themselves and management regains investor trust," Wedbush analyst Tom Nikic said in a note. To be sure, Nike has cut back on oversupplied brands including Air Force 1 to curb a worsening sales decline as part of a $2 billion cost-cutting plan launched late last year.

Nike is set to roll out this year an Air Max version and Pegasus 41 with full-length foam midsole made from ReactX to boost sustainability, responding to concerns over stagnating innovation. The company was "also accelerating planned reductions for our three largest franchises ... while we have work to do, we are very focused on scaling the newness to offset this planned reduction," CEO John Donahoe said on a post-earnings call.

Newer sporting goods brands, including Hoka, Asics, New Balance and On, accounted for 35% of global market share in 2023 compared to the 20% held over the 2013-2020 period, according to a RBC research report released in June. "They know where the problems are, but they're having trouble right now generating demand and it is going to be a transition period that is going to take some time in different markets," Morningstar analyst David Swartz said.

Nike's U.S. market share in the sports footwear category fell to 34.97% in 2023 from 35.37% in 2022, and 35.40% in 2021, according to GlobalData. At least six brokerages downgraded the stock and 15 cut their price targets on Nike.

Nike's shares were trading at 25.13 times profit estimates while On and Deckers were trading at 37.41 and 31.13 times earnings expectations.

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