Stocks Surge as Oil Rises and Yen Slides Amid Global Economic Shifts

Global stocks are ending the first half strong, driven by U.S. inflation data and a surge in oil prices. The yen hit a 38-year low, prompting possible intervention from Japanese authorities. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 15% in six months, buoyed by the AI boom and strong performance in Europe and Asia.

Global stocks on Friday were poised to end the first half on a strong note, with investors looking to key U.S. inflation data for clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the yen's slide to a 38-year low fuelled expectations over intervention by the Japanese authorities to stem the weakness.

Oil was headed for a third straight weekly jump. On the last trading day of the first half of the year, stocks hovered near recent record highs. The AI boom on Wall Street has helped the S&P 500 blue chip index rocket nearly 15% over the past six months, with hefty gains in Europe and Asia, too, as markets put aside concerns over electoral uncertainty.

There was a muted response from the dollar and U.S. stock index futures to the U.S. presidential debate that saw Democrat President Joe Biden stumble at times in a head-to-head with his Republican rival Donald Trump ahead of the November election. "We see a potential Trump administration as more positive for the dollar both via looser fiscal policy and also via a more aggressive trade/tariff environment," analysts at ING bank said after the debate.

However, worries about the outcome of the French parliamentary elections that start on Sunday pushed the risk premium on French government bonds over German bonds to its widest since the euro zone debt crisis in 2012. The political uncertainty in France put the euro on track for its biggest monthly fall since January.

The MSCI All Country Stock Index was slightly firmer at 804.27 points, near its lifetime high of 807.17 on June 20, and up about 10.5% for the year. In Europe, the STOXX index of 600 companies gained 0.11% to 513 points, helping to cement its 7% gain for the year.

"In the first half we've seen some really good performance from the equity market, and the question we are asking ourselves is where is the performance going to come from in the second half," said Eren Osman, wealth management director at Arbuthnot Latham. The tech majors and AI boom should continue to drive stocks into the second half, he said.

"What we see is just a very clear narrative that the investment in that space is not going to show down anytime in the near term, so to bet against that as a theme and likely strong equity market performance is probably not a wise move," Osman said. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, is due at 1230 GMT, before the opening bell on Wall Street. If its annual growth slowed to 2.6% in May, as economists expect, it may open the way to cuts later this year.

Traders are now pricing in a 64% chance of a first Fed cut in September, up from 50% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool, though analysts said those expectations could be derailed if Friday's core PCE figures surprise to the upside. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both ticked higher.

ASIAN WINNING STREAK MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2% and was on track to gain more than 3% for the month, its best performance since February.

Chinese markets, meanwhile, reversed early losses to trade higher, with China's benchmark CSI300 last up 0.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 0.56% higher. In currency markets, the dollar was on the front foot and was eyeing a monthly gain of nearly 1.4% against a basket of currencies.

The yen tumbled to a trough of 161.27 per dollar, its weakest since 1986, and was last trading at 160.91. The Japanese currency has fallen some 2.3% this month and more than 12% for the year against a resilient dollar, as it continues to be hammered by stark interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan.

The latest decline in the Japanese currency has kept investors on edge, watching for possible intervention from Tokyo. Japanese authorities spent 9.79 trillion yen ($60.94 billion) at the end of April and in early May to push the yen up 5% from its 34-year low of 160.245 then. The yen's weakness has, meanwhile, been a boon for the Nikkei, which last rose 0.6%. It was eyeing a monthly gain of about 3%.

Also on Friday, Japan's government appointed financial regulation expert Atsushi Mimura as its top currency diplomat, replacing Masato Kanda who battled sharp yen declines this year with the biggest currency intervention on record. In commodity markets, gold was a touch firmer at$2,328 an ounce.

Brent crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $86.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.6% to $82.23 per barrel.

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)