Disasters in Conflict Zones: Insights on Recovery Delays in Mozambique and Nigeria

A study by the World Bank and Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Center reveals that natural disasters exacerbate vulnerabilities in conflict-affected regions, with Mozambique and Nigeria showing slower recovery and deeper economic disruptions compared to non-conflict areas. The research highlights the need for conflict-sensitive disaster management strategies to enhance resilience in these regions.

A collaborative study by researchers from the World Bank and Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Center explores the disproportionate impacts of natural disasters on conflict-affected regions, focusing on Mozambique and Nigeria. Part of the Policy Research Working Paper Series, this research uses satellite-derived nightlight radiance data to examine how economic activity in these regions is affected by floods compared to non-conflict areas. The study analyzes the aftermath of Mozambique’s 2019 Tropical Cyclones Idai and Kenneth and Nigeria’s 2022 floods, employing a difference-in-difference econometric model to assess whether conflict exacerbates disaster impacts and prolongs recovery.

Differentiating Disaster Impacts in Conflict Zones

The findings reveal stark disparities between conflict-affected and non-conflict regions in their ability to recover from disasters. In Mozambique, regions hit by Cyclones Idai and Kenneth experienced a 1.4% sharper decline in nightlight intensity in conflict zones, indicating deeper economic disruptions. Recovery in these areas was slow, often taking months longer than in non-conflict regions. Similarly, in Nigeria, the July 2022 floods caused a 1.2% larger negative impact on nightlight radiance in conflict-affected areas. These outcomes underscore how conflict amplifies vulnerabilities to natural disasters, with pre-existing issues like fragile governance and weak infrastructure compounding the impact.

Using Satellite Data to Illuminate Economic Disruptions

To overcome the lack of reliable ground-level economic data in conflict regions, the study used satellite-derived nightlight radiance as a proxy for economic activity. This data, captured by NASA-NOAA’s VIIRS sensors, allowed researchers to track changes in nightlight intensity before and after the disasters. The methodology was complemented by geospatial flood maps and conflict incident records, enabling a comprehensive analysis of overlapping challenges. Despite limitations such as the underrepresentation of rural economic activity, this approach provided valuable insights into how disasters disrupt economic activities in conflict settings. Researchers also controlled for population density and urbanization to ensure accurate comparisons between regions.

Mozambique: Cyclones and Prolonged Disruption

The Mozambique case study focused on the devastation caused by Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in March and April 2019. These storms led to widespread flooding, severely impacting both conflict and non-conflict zones. In Cabo Delgado, an area already grappling with armed insurgencies, economic recovery was significantly delayed. Nightlight intensity in conflict zones remained low for months after the floods, reflecting extended disruptions to infrastructure and livelihoods. In contrast, non-conflict regions began to recover sooner, highlighting the resilience gap. The analysis demonstrates how conflict not only increases the immediate impacts of disasters but also hinders recovery efforts, leaving communities in prolonged crises.

Nigeria: Widespread Vulnerabilities to Flooding

In Nigeria, the 2022 floods inundated vast areas between July and October, with conflict zones experiencing particularly severe disruptions. These areas, often characterized by informal settlements and limited infrastructure, saw steep and sustained declines in nightlight radiance. The floods also caused extended power outages and delayed recovery in conflict regions compared to non-conflict zones. Unlike Mozambique, where conflicts were geographically concentrated, Nigeria’s conflicts were more uniformly distributed, creating widespread challenges for disaster response. The study highlights how overlapping crises of conflict and disaster strain already limited resources, further delaying recovery in vulnerable regions.

Toward Conflict-Sensitive Disaster Management

The study underscores the critical need for integrating conflict-sensitive approaches into disaster risk reduction and recovery planning. Investments in resilient infrastructure, stronger governance, and targeted humanitarian assistance are essential to addressing the unique challenges of conflict-affected areas. By tailoring disaster response strategies to the specific needs of these regions, policymakers can mitigate the compounded effects of conflict and disaster. The researchers also advocate for combining satellite-based analyses with household-level surveys to capture the full spectrum of disaster impacts, including long-term socio-economic consequences.

While acknowledging the limitations of nightlight data as a proxy for economic activity, particularly in rural or electricity-scarce areas, the study emphasizes its utility in data-scarce environments. This approach allows for systematic comparisons between conflict and non-conflict regions, providing actionable insights for building resilience in the most vulnerable settings. Future research aims to expand on these findings by exploring the long-term impacts of disasters in conflict zones, bridging the gap between macro-level analysis and the lived experiences of affected populations. By illuminating these complex dynamics, this research offers valuable guidance for policymakers and development practitioners working to strengthen resilience in disaster-prone, conflict-affected areas.