From Forecasting to Preparedness: Bhutan’s 2024–2034 Plan for Enhanced Hydromet Services

Bhutan's National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology, with the World Bank, has devised a 10-year roadmap to modernize hydrometeorological services, aiming to enhance climate resilience across vital economic sectors. This plan emphasizes infrastructure upgrades, sector-specific forecasting, and improved disaster preparedness to protect lives and support sustainable development.

The National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) of Bhutan and the World Bank have jointly developed a comprehensive roadmap to enhance Bhutan's hydrometeorological (hydromet) and multi-hazard early warning services from 2024 to 2034. This initiative, motivated by the increasing impacts of climate change on Bhutan's economy and environment, aims to protect lives and promote sustainable development across sectors that rely heavily on accurate weather, climate, and water data. Bhutan faces unique challenges due to its rugged Himalayan terrain and economic dependence on hydropower, agriculture, and tourism, all vulnerable to climate-related hazards. The roadmap is designed to modernize Bhutan’s hydromet services, equipping the country with enhanced data-gathering capabilities, real-time monitoring, and disaster risk management tools critical to achieving resilience in the face of intensifying natural hazards.

Climate-Induced Hazards and Their Threat to Bhutan’s Economy

Historically, Bhutan has experienced significant adverse impacts from extreme weather events, such as floods, landslides, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which are expected to increase in frequency and severity with rising temperatures. Bhutan’s glaciers, which provide essential water resources, are retreating at an alarming rate due to climate change, impacting river flow and increasing the risk of catastrophic GLOFs. This changing climate and its associated risks threaten vital economic sectors, especially hydropower, which constitutes a significant portion of Bhutan’s GDP and energy exports. Agriculture, which employs nearly half of Bhutan’s workforce, is another sector at high risk, as it depends on predictable seasonal rainfall. To address these pressing issues, the roadmap outlines a phased approach to modernization, beginning with a five-year short-term plan and extending to a ten-year medium-term plan. Each phase aims to strengthen Bhutan’s hydromet capacity through investments in observation infrastructure, forecasting technologies, ICT systems, and human resources, creating a robust system that can deliver precise, actionable information to mitigate climate impacts on Bhutan’s economy and society.

Building Infrastructure for Enhanced Forecasting and Early Warning

In the short term (2024-2029), the roadmap proposes establishing a new NCHM headquarters, equipped with state-of-the-art facilities for data gathering and processing, as well as training centers for developing specialized skills among NCHM staff. These upgrades will facilitate enhanced observational networks across Bhutan, especially in high-altitude regions where the current network is limited. Improved data collection infrastructure will be complemented by enhanced ICT capabilities, including better data storage, processing, and communication systems. This will allow the NCHM to deliver more timely and accurate weather forecasts, thereby providing critical information to various sectors, from agriculture to tourism and disaster management. Observational improvements will include new automatic weather stations, radar systems, and hydrological monitoring sites, which are crucial for maintaining Bhutan’s hydropower capacity and ensuring water security. In addition to infrastructure upgrades, the roadmap emphasizes the importance of establishing partnerships with local stakeholders and international institutions, promoting regional data exchange, and implementing quality management systems to ensure reliable service delivery.

Developing Climate-Specific Forecasting for Key Sectors

As part of its short-term goals, the roadmap aims to integrate the National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS), enhancing Bhutan’s capacity for impact-based forecasting. Such forecasting will allow the NCHM to produce sector-specific advisories tailored to critical economic areas, including agriculture and hydropower. For instance, farmers will receive agrometeorological advisories, enabling them to adapt their practices based on forecasted weather conditions. These services will also extend to aviation, providing meteorological data essential for flight safety and efficiency. Furthermore, the NCHM will explore probabilistic forecasting, a technique that improves forecast accuracy by incorporating potential uncertainties, thus providing a clearer picture of possible weather scenarios and enhancing disaster preparedness. Overall, the short-term investments outlined in the roadmap are expected to yield substantial socioeconomic returns. The World Bank estimates that every dollar invested in hydromet services generates at least three dollars in benefits, underscoring the value of these upgrades in Bhutan’s pursuit of climate resilience.

Expanding Advanced Systems for Long-Term Resilience

In the medium term (2029-2034), the roadmap expands on these initiatives, introducing additional observational technologies, including two new upper air stations and a weather radar for Thimphu and Paro. Such advancements will elevate the NCHM’s capacity to deliver high-quality, location-specific forecasts, and warnings, addressing the needs of various sectors, from agriculture and hydropower to disaster risk reduction. A key component of this phase involves transitioning from basic weather forecasts to impact-based forecasts that take into account the potential social and economic effects of weather events. For instance, in collaboration with disaster management agencies, the NCHM plans to develop a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) to deliver timely, actionable warnings for floods, GLOFs, and other extreme events. This integrated approach will improve public safety and resilience by enabling communities and industries to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to specific weather risks. In addition, advancements in ICT infrastructure will support an integrated data system, allowing the NCHM to store, process, and disseminate hydromet data across sectors efficiently. Establishing a centralized data platform will enhance data accessibility for stakeholders and support Bhutan’s goal of creating a ‘one-stop’ portal for weather and climate services.

A Future-Focused Commitment to Innovation and Resilience

To ensure sustainability, the roadmap highlights the importance of ongoing staff training and capacity building. The NCHM will collaborate with regional institutions to develop a professional training program, focusing on meteorological and hydrological modeling, impact-based forecasting, and climate services. This will ensure that Bhutan maintains a skilled workforce capable of operating and maintaining its upgraded hydromet infrastructure. Furthermore, the roadmap calls for innovative approaches, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, to improve forecasting accuracy. By leveraging these technologies, the NCHM can enhance its data analysis capabilities, particularly important for high-resolution, localized forecasts essential for sectors like hydropower and agriculture. These technological advancements will make Bhutan’s hydromet services more resilient and adaptable to the country’s unique environmental and socioeconomic challenges.

Overall, the NCHM’s roadmap, supported by the World Bank, is a strategic effort to bolster Bhutan’s capacity to manage climate risks, protect its natural resources, and foster economic resilience. Through targeted investments in infrastructure, human resources, and technology, the NCHM aims to provide reliable, timely information that will enable Bhutan’s citizens, businesses, and government agencies to make informed decisions in the face of climate uncertainty. This roadmap is not only a critical tool for modernizing Bhutan’s hydromet services but also a testament to the country’s commitment to sustainable, climate-resilient growth. In an era of increasing environmental unpredictability, Bhutan’s proactive approach serves as a model for other nations seeking to integrate environmental resilience into their development strategies, ensuring the protection of lives, livelihoods, and economic stability.