Navigating Fragility: Climate and Development Strategies for Sustainable Peace

The World Bank's guidance on natural resource management in conflict-prone regions emphasizes integrating climate and development planning with conflict-sensitive, inclusive strategies to support resilience and prevent resource-based conflicts. By addressing vulnerabilities in fragile contexts, Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) aim to foster stability and equitable growth.

The World Bank's "Natural Resource Management, Fragility, and Conflict Issues: Guidance Note for Country Climate and Development Reports" focuses on supporting the development of conflict-sensitive, sustainable policies that align with the complex realities of natural resource management, climate change, and fragility in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). Produced by World Bank researchers Elise Doumergue, Shaadee Ahmadnia, Max Hammond, and Caio de Araújo Barbosa, the guidance examines how climate risks, resource dependence, and socioeconomic vulnerability create tensions and magnify fragility in areas where access to essential resources is already contested or inequitable. As conflicts over water, land, forests, and minerals grow more frequent, particularly in areas with high poverty rates and weak institutions, this guidance note emphasizes that a proactive, nuanced approach to resource management in CCDRs can help support vulnerable populations while fostering resilience, stability, and peace. The framework within highlights the need for comprehensive planning, analyzing how existing economic, political, and environmental pressures could shape future conflict dynamics, especially as competition for increasingly scarce resources intensifies.

Impacts of Resource Dependency and Climate Pressure on Vulnerability

The authors underscore that natural resource pressures can both initiate and perpetuate conflict, particularly when climate shocks and poor governance compound social and economic inequalities. Communities dependent on resource-based economies, like Guinea-Bissau, Cameroon, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), are particularly vulnerable to shocks from climate change, which disrupts agriculture, diminishes food security, and reduces income sources. Given the reliance of countries like Guinea-Bissau, where agriculture accounts for a significant portion of GDP and labor, on subsistence farming, the report warns that changes in weather patterns and soil conditions can increase competition over land and water, potentially spurring conflict among local communities. In such contexts, CCDRs have an opportunity to provide a foundation for interventions that prevent conflict by addressing the root causes of resource-related tensions, promoting inclusive policies, and supporting sustainable, diversified livelihoods.

The Role of Community Consultation in Managing Climate Pressures

In Iraq, a CCDR project surveyed local climate-vulnerable groups, such as farmers, to understand the impact of resource scarcity on social stability. Responses revealed significant concern over water shortages and land degradation, which many feared would lead to displacement as farmers moved to urban areas. The report explains that natural resource dependency and climate-induced pressures can lead to greater instability when adaptive measures are not taken, especially in regions already experiencing political and social fragility. By building resilience through diverse, locally adaptive policies, CCDRs can encourage stability and prevent migration pressures from escalating into broader societal conflicts. In fragile states where reliance on resource exports is high, such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe, shifting economies toward resilience-focused strategies is essential for reducing risks and supporting sustainable development.

Addressing Inequities in Resource and Climate Management

The guidance also illustrates how essential it is to embed equity within resource management, as those on society’s margins, including women and displaced populations, often bear the brunt of climate impacts. The Lebanon CCDR, for instance, highlighted how limited employment options and access to disaster preparedness measures leave women particularly exposed to the adverse effects of climate change, while the Iraq CCDR noted that the reliance on agriculture places rural women in particularly vulnerable positions during climate shocks. By employing intersectional analyses that account for gender, socioeconomic status, and cultural contexts, CCDRs can inform more comprehensive adaptation strategies that promote equitable outcomes. In addition to this, the World Bank guidance advises incorporating inclusive engagement methods, as the exclusion of affected groups often leads to perceptions of injustice, which can drive further conflict. The guidance specifically emphasizes people-centered approaches in CCDRs, as seen in Iraq's Stakeholder Engagement Plan, which enabled iterative consultations with vulnerable communities to ensure that climate recommendations met the core needs of those most affected.

Mitigating Conflict through Inclusive Economic Strategies

The guidance also warns that natural resource management and climate policies need to be conflict-sensitive to prevent fueling grievances or exacerbating inequalities. It points out that resource competition can often arise even when resources are abundant, as economic incentives and power imbalances influence who benefits. For instance, the ongoing transition to renewable energy, which demands significant land and mineral resources, can potentially displace marginalized groups and drive local conflicts if not managed carefully. The authors note that policies that ignore these dynamics risk creating new grievances, particularly when mineral extraction for renewable technologies predominantly occurs in FCS countries like the DRC, where benefits may not trickle down to local populations. The guidance advocates for inclusive economic strategies, which consider those at the periphery, to avoid inflaming existing tensions. It highlights how CCDRs can take into account the differentiated regional impacts of climate change, as exemplified in the Cameroon CCDR, which localized its recommendations to respond to the specific environmental challenges and vulnerabilities of various regions.

Integrating Social, Economic, and Environmental Dimensions for Lasting Peace

The report concludes that CCDRs, as climate and development diagnostics, are uniquely positioned to integrate social, economic, and environmental considerations into resource management strategies. Recognizing the complex interplay of factors that drive conflict and fragility, the guidance underscores the importance of tailoring CCDR recommendations to the needs of vulnerable communities, especially in regions experiencing rapid climate impacts. The World Bank's framework emphasizes the potential of CCDRs to foster peace by proactively addressing resource dependencies, promoting resilience, and ensuring that climate strategies do not leave marginalized groups behind. Through comprehensive, people-centered planning, CCDRs can support equitable development, mitigating the risks associated with resource-based conflicts and advancing stability in fragile contexts.