Addressing Water Crises and Conflicts: Farmers’ Perspectives on Climate Change in Iran

Farmers in Iran's ZayandehRud Basin face severe climate change impacts on water resources, leading to intensified water crises and conflicts. A study highlights differing perceptions between upstream and downstream farmers and underscores the need for improved policies and conflict management.

Farmers in the ZayandehRud Basin of Iran are grappling with the severe impacts of climate change on water resources, exacerbating both water crises and conflicts. A study conducted by researchers from the University of Zanjan, Tarbiat Modares University, and the Isfahan Regional Water Company delves into how these farmers perceive their vulnerability to climate change and its subsequent effects on water availability and disputes over water use. Utilizing both meteorological data and a survey of 301 randomly selected farmers, the research reveals significant climatic trends that are corroborated by the farmers' observations. These trends include increased temperatures, fluctuating precipitation, and reduced snowfall, which are particularly felt in the upstream areas of the basin.

Upstream vs. Downstream: Diverging Perceptions on Water Crisis

The farmers in the upstream sub-basins report more pronounced impacts such as significant declines in precipitation and shifts from snowfall to rainfall, leading to reduced water availability. These upstream farmers perceive a high sensitivity to these changes, believing that their regions are crucial water suppliers for the entire basin, which exacerbates their vulnerability. On the other hand, downstream farmers are more focused on the mismanagement of water resources, attributing the water crisis largely to administrative failures rather than solely to climate change. The study identifies three primary categories of climate change-induced water crises: the intensification of demand-based water scarcity affecting agriculture, municipal, industrial, and environmental sectors; the surface water crisis marked by persistent droughts and drying rivers; and the groundwater crisis involving declining water tables and dried wells. Upstream farmers feel the brunt of groundwater and surface water crises, while downstream farmers acknowledge these issues but also highlight administrative mismanagement.

Escalating Conflicts Over Scarce Water Resources

Conflicts over water have been escalating, especially between farmers in the upstream and downstream areas. Persistent droughts and drying water bodies are major conflict drivers, with upstream farmers perceiving higher impacts on disputes. These conflicts are not just among farmers but also involve government entities and different sectors reliant on water resources. The water crisis, particularly water scarcity, floods, pollution, and groundwater table decline, is a main global risk that has adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts on society. It is a critical challenge caused or intensified by various direct factors, such as limited resources, climate change, periodic droughts, hydrological conditions, environmental changes, population and consumption growth, the increased demand for water, and excessive use of resources. The crisis is also influenced by indirect factors, particularly socio-economic and cultural changes, socio-political and institutional challenges, inadequate knowledge, attitudes, and skills of water users, and unsustainable behaviors by society.

The Far-Reaching Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

Among these factors, the current paper emphasizes the impact of climate change on the water crisis and conflicts from farmers’ perspective. Climate change has intensified the scarcity of water resources around the world, affected ecosystems and their resources, and caused a series of adverse impacts, including droughts, floods, human health, biodiversity loss, and the incidence of other natural hazards, which can unavoidably threaten human systems activities and well-being. Rural communities, particularly small-scale farmers, are among the most vulnerable people to climate-induced water stresses, because of their livelihood’s dependency on agriculture and natural resources. These communities’ livelihoods have faced many climatic uncertainties and experienced numerous environmental challenges, particularly because of their exposure and maladaptation to climate change. Rural communities and farmers are exposed to climate change-induced stressors, shifts, and shocks, such as rising temperatures, precipitation change, and more intense and frequent wildfires, which have caused more extreme climatic events than they had historically. Understanding farmers’ perspectives on climate change and its impacts is crucial to taking adaptive actions for maintaining rural economies, improving food security, conserving and restoring biodiversity, and decreasing conflicts among stakeholders.

Bridging the Gap: Scientific Understanding vs. Farmers' Adaptation

Some research projects have noted a gap between the scientific understanding of climate change and farmers’ adoption of adaptive management in water crises. Some studies in recent years have also linked the conflicts within and between societies to climate change. The conflict over common natural resources is a complex phenomenon and usually exists when these resources are scarce. However, there is still a shortage of knowledge on this subject and the relevant methodological reflections on climate–conflict research. Little consensus exists on whether climate change can exacerbate the competition for scarce resources such as food, water, and land, intensify violence, fuel anti-state protests, destabilize the state governance capacity, increase migration, and worsen other related conflicts. The evidence indicates that the conflicts caused by the water crisis are increasing in vulnerable areas, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, while these areas are also exposed and sensitive to climate change.

Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Water Management

Because of a lack of understanding regarding the impact of climate change on water crises and conflicts, particularly from residents’ perspectives, the current research focuses on assessing farmers’ perceptions in different areas within the ZayandehRud Basin. The study underscores the need for policies that enhance farmers' understanding of climate change and its impacts, reduce perception gaps, and promote conflict management through social learning platforms. Addressing these issues is crucial for sustainable water management and conflict resolution in the ZayandehRud Basin.