Hurricane Beryl's Explosive Growth Threatens Caribbean, Sets Alarming Record

The WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Miami, operated by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), has issued warnings of life-threatening winds, storm surge, and floods.

Hurricane Beryl poses a major threat to Caribbean communities after intensifying at an explosive rate, becoming the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. This alarming development underscores the need for comprehensive multi-hazard early warnings as the region braces for a highly active hurricane season.

Beryl, currently classified as a top-ranked Category 5 hurricane, is heading towards Jamaica with sustained winds near 165 mph (270 km/h) and higher gusts extending outward up to 40 miles (65 km). The WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Miami, operated by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), has issued warnings of life-threatening winds, storm surge, and floods.

On July 1, Beryl made landfall in the southern Windward Islands as a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h), directly impacting Grenada and causing significant damage in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. These islands, with little experience in handling such a powerful hurricane, faced major challenges.

Fluctuations in Beryl's strength are expected over the next day, but it is predicted to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as it moves into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is forecasted in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is expected to stay a hurricane.

The NHC warns of potentially catastrophic wind damage at Beryl’s core, with hurricane conditions possible in Jamaica by Wednesday. Storm surge could increase water levels by 3-5 feet (0.9-1.5 meters) above normal tide levels in Jamaica, and rainfall totals may reach 4-8 inches (101-202 mm), with localized amounts up to 12 inches (303 mm), potentially causing flash flooding. Rainfall from Beryl’s outer bands may also impact parts of Hispaniola on Tuesday and Wednesday.

“A single landfalling hurricane can set back years of socio-economic development. For instance, Hurricane Maria in 2017 cost Dominica 800% of its Gross Domestic Product,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. “Early warnings and improved disaster risk management have dramatically reduced fatalities, but Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean still suffer disproportionately.”

The WMO and its partners prioritize early warning actions in small islands under the international Early Warnings For All initiative. Barrett emphasized the need for vigilance this year due to near-record ocean heat and the shift to La Niña conditions, which create favorable conditions for storm development.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts an increase in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones and precipitation rates due to climate change. Hurricane Beryl’s rapid intensification from a tropical depression to a Category 3 hurricane in 42 hours, and to Category 4 in 48 hours, reflects this trend. Extremely high ocean heat content levels contributed to Beryl's unprecedented early development.

Sea surface temperatures have been record high for the respective month for 14 consecutive months (until May 2024). The central and eastern Atlantic typically become more active in August due to warmer ocean temperatures, but Beryl's early intensification sets the stage for a particularly active and dangerous hurricane season.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts 17 to 25 named storms this season (average is 14), with 8 to 13 expected to become hurricanes (average is 7), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (average is 3). The Atlantic hurricane season, lasting from June 1 to November 30, has seen eight consecutive years of above-average activity, with the last below-normal season occurring in 2015. Warm sea surface temperatures and the transition from El Niño to La Niña are fueling tropical development.