Trudeau Faces Election Test Amid Sliding Polls and Unhappy Legislators

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals face a crucial special election in Montreal's LaSalle—Emard—Verdun constituency. Traditionally a safe seat, the Liberals are now trailing in the polls. If they lose, it may intensify calls for Trudeau's resignation. Polls predict Liberals' poor performance against Conservatives in upcoming federal elections.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's ruling Liberals, badly trailing in the polls, face a tough challenge on Monday to retain a historically secure seat in a special election.

The Montreal constituency of LaSalle—Emard—Verdun saw a special election called to replace a Liberal legislator who resigned. Traditionally, Trudeau's party could easily win here, but surveys indicate a tight race. A loss would cast further doubt on Trudeau's leadership, especially after almost nine years in office.

Notably, some Liberal legislators are calling for a leadership change. Alexandra Mendes, a Quebec Liberal lawmaker, indicated a significant number of her constituents believe Trudeau should step down. "It's not just a couple of people; dozens have voiced their concerns," she told Radio-Canada.

Trudeau, committed to leading the party through the next federal election scheduled by October 2025, believes Monday's voters are driven by frustration over high living costs and a housing crisis. "Canadians are facing significant financial difficulties, and they're understandably very frustrated," Trudeau said last Wednesday.

Calls for Trudeau's ouster grew louder in June after the Liberals lost a safe seat in Toronto during another special election. Current polls suggest a significant defeat for the Liberals by the right-of-center Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre in the next federal election, with a Leger poll last week showing Conservatives at 45% public support versus the Liberals at 25%.

In the 2021 general election, the Liberals secured LaSalle—Emard—Verdun with 43% of the vote, far outpacing the Bloc Quebecois and the New Democratic Party. Today, polls show the three parties are nearly tied. Voting concludes at 9 p.m. (0100 GMT), but with approximately 80 activists contesting due to a broken 2015 voting system reform promise, results may be delayed.

Trudeau's popularity has waned amidst rising living costs and housing issues exacerbated by temporary residents. Poilievre has pledged to remove a federal carbon tax and cap immigration until housing supply increases. Whilst the polls look dismal, Liberals plan to intensify efforts to link Poilievre to the divisive Make America Great Again movement of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Poilievre, who has adopted an aggressive political style, has pledged to defund CBC and has previously called Trudeau a "wacko."

(With inputs from agencies.)