France Braces for High-Stakes Election with Far-Right Surge

Parties across France urged voters to participate in Sunday's election, where opinion polls suggest the far-right National Rally could become the largest party but may fall short of a majority. Tactical withdrawals by other parties have complicated outcomes, with Marine Le Pen urging her supporters to defy the odds.

Parties throughout the French political landscape urged voters to turn out in droves on Sunday, as opinion polls suggest the far-right National Rally (RN) could emerge as the largest party, though short of an outright majority. Marine Le Pen's eurosceptic and anti-immigration RN topped the first round of parliamentary elections with a third of the vote, raising the specter of a far-right-led government in France for the first time since World War Two.

However, tactical withdrawals by mainstream parties aimed at elevating those best positioned to defeat the far right have muddled projections, potentially lowering the number of seats RN could win. Le Pen criticized the 'republican front' of mainstream parties for showing disdain towards her voters and urged them to prove pollsters wrong in the decisive second round.

In the final day of campaigning, Le Pen told Europe 1 radio and CNews TV, 'I get the impression that all this is designed to demotivate our voters. Fortunately, I know them and I know they're highly motivated, so I tell them, really do go and vote. We need everybody.'

An OpinionWay poll for Les Echos predicted RN gaining 205-230 seats, the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) with 145-175 seats, and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc with 130-162 seats. Ipsos estimated RN would get 175-205 seats, while Ifop forecasted a 170-210 range.

With 289 seats required for a majority in the National Assembly, European Parliament lawmaker Raphael Glucksmann of the NFP warned against complacency, cautioning that voter demobilization could lead to an unexpected surge for RN. 'Commentators and politicians already speak as if the RN had no absolute majority and congratulate themselves on their efforts to block it... I think that could demobilise voters, and I am worried. There is a tidal wave in favour of the National Rally,' he told RTL radio.

The volatility of voter behavior remains a critical uncertainty. IFOP pollster Jerome Fourquet pointed out that whether leftwing voters would support right-wing or Macron camp candidates was still unclear. 'The big unknown is the size of the republican front,' he said on RMC radio. 'So much is up in the air that a leftwing alliance outpacing the RN could not be entirely ruled out in the end.'

A hung parliament, coalition attempts, minority government, or caretaker administration could result, each scenario likely spelling political uncertainty and hindering economic reform efforts. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin reported physical harm to at least 51 candidates and supporters, leading to increased police presence and a ban on a planned far-left demonstration at the National Assembly on voting day.

Some French voters expressed envy at the clarity of Britain's recent election, where the Labour Party won decisively. 'The British should count themselves lucky,' said lawyer Natacha Lesellier in Paris.

(Disclaimer: With inputs from agencies.)