France's Parliament Election: National Rally Faces Uncertain Majority

France's far-right National Rally (RN) party may fall short of an absolute majority in the parliamentary elections. While some forecasts predict RN leading, significant caution remains. Left-wing alliances and voter dynamics are unpredictable, and political tension has heightened concerns about possible violence on election day.

France's far-right National Rally (RN) party looked set to fall short of an absolute majority in parliamentary elections, recent polls showed on the last day of campaigning on Friday, though some politicians and pollsters urged caution. An OpinionWay poll for business daily Les Echos saw the RN winning 205-230 seats in Sunday's vote, ahead of the leftwing New Popular Front with 145-175 seats, and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc with 130-162 seats. The findings were largely in line with other surveys released on Thursday.

For a ruling majority, 289 seats are needed in the National Assembly. European lawmaker Raphael Glucksmann, one of the political leaders of the leftist New Popular Front (NPF), told RTL radio one should not take for granted the RN falling short of an absolute majority.

"Commentators and politicians already speak as if the RN had no absolute majority and congratulate themselves on their efforts to block it ... I think that could demobilise voters and I am worried. There is a tidal wave in favour of the National Rally," he said. More than 200 candidates across the political spectrum withdrew their candidacies to clear the path for whoever was best placed to defeat the RN candidate in their district, a process known as the "republican front".

However, much uncertainty remains, including whether voters will go along with these efforts to block the RN. Leading RN figure Marine Le Pen told BFM TV that she still believed her party could score an absolute majority despite most of the political landscape teaming up against her movement.

"I get the impression that all this is designed to demotivate our voters. Fortunately, I know them and I know they're highly motivated, so I really do say go and vote," Le Pen said, adding: "I think we have a serious chance of having an absolute majority in the National Assembly." IFOP pollster Jerome Fourquet, who on Thursday forecast 210-240 seats for the far right and 170-200 for the left, told RMC radio one could not even rule out the leftwing alliance outpacing the RN in the end.

"The big unknown is the size of the republican front ... will a leftwing voter cast a ballot for a rightwing candidate or a Macron camp candidate?" At least 51 candidates and their supporters were physically harmed at the end of a tense four weeks since President Macron dissolved the National Assembly, Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said.

"Outbreaks of violence are to be feared on Sunday," he told BFM TV, saying he decided to step up the police presence and ban a planned far-left demonstration at the National Assembly on the voting day.

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