Harnessing Offshore Wind: Türkiye’s Path to Renewable Energy Leadership by 2053

The World Bank's Offshore Wind Roadmap for Turkey outlines a strategic plan to harness 75 GW of offshore wind potential, boosting energy independence and reducing emissions by 2053. With strong government support and infrastructure upgrades, Türkiye can emerge as a regional leader in renewable energy.

The World Bank Group’s Offshore Wind Roadmap for Turkey, developed in collaboration with COWI, RE Consult, GazRay, and The Biodiversity Consultancy, provides a strategic blueprint for the country to harness offshore wind energy as a significant renewable resource. Supported by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the PROBLUE initiative, the roadmap seeks to reduce Turkey’s reliance on energy imports, which account for 70% of its energy needs. With electricity demand projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.5% through 2035, the roadmap aligns with Turkey’s ambition to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2053, while fostering economic growth and environmental sustainability.

Unlocking Turkey’s Offshore Wind Potential

Turkey’s geographic location and industrial strengths make it highly suitable for offshore wind development. The country has an estimated technical potential of 75 GW, with its western coastline experiencing wind speeds of up to 9.5 meters per second. However, the most viable areas for development are in deep waters, necessitating floating offshore wind technology. Careful planning is essential, as many promising areas overlap with environmentally sensitive zones, such as protected habitats and key biodiversity areas. The roadmap identifies four primary exploration zones in the Aegean, Marmara, and Black Seas, offering a combined potential of 66 GW after accounting for technical, environmental, and social constraints. This strategic approach balances energy expansion with ecological preservation, ensuring the responsible development of offshore wind resources.

Scenarios for Growth: Building Momentum

The roadmap outlines two growth scenarios to chart Turkey’s offshore wind future. The low-growth scenario envisions a modest capacity of 16 GW by 2050, emphasizing gradual development and regulatory improvements. In contrast, the high-growth scenario projects a more ambitious 26.8 GW by the same year, supported by strong government prioritization, competitive tendering, and streamlined permitting processes. Both scenarios focus on delivering initial projects to build industry momentum and establish a domestic offshore wind supply chain. Turkey’s National Energy Plan already aligns with these aspirations, targeting 5 GW of offshore wind by 2035, signaling political commitment to this transformative technology.

Economic Transformation and Job Creation

Offshore wind development could significantly boost Turkey’s economy, creating substantial employment opportunities and contributing billions to the GDP. By 2030, investments in the sector are expected to generate between 32,000 and 110,000 full-time equivalent jobs, depending on the growth scenario. Additionally, offshore wind could add between 4 billion dollars and 16 billion dollars to Turkey’s GDP annually. The roadmap emphasizes the potential for a robust local supply chain, leveraging Turkey’s existing strengths in shipbuilding and onshore wind manufacturing. With the right incentives, Turkey could emerge as a key player in the Mediterranean offshore wind market, exporting components and expertise to regional and global projects.

Overcoming Challenges and Laying the Foundation

While the potential is immense, offshore wind development in Turkey faces several hurdles. Initial costs are expected to be higher than onshore alternatives, with the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for early projects estimated between 94 dollars and 117 dollars per megawatt-hour. However, international experience suggests that costs decline significantly over time with technological advancements, larger project scales, and improved competition. The roadmap calls for concessional financing, risk mitigation measures, and government incentives to de-risk investments and attract international players. Clear regulatory frameworks, competitive tender processes, and innovative financial mechanisms, such as inflation-indexed power purchase agreements, are recommended to reduce uncertainty and enhance investor confidence.

The roadmap also emphasizes alignment with global environmental and social standards. Comprehensive environmental and social impact assessments (ESIAs) will be critical to ensuring sustainable development. Infrastructure upgrades, particularly in ports and the national grid, are also necessary to support large-scale deployment. The roadmap highlights the importance of prioritizing long-term port planning, upgrading installation facilities, and expanding grid capacity to integrate renewable energy sources effectively.

The Path to Becoming a Regional Leader

Turkey stands at a pivotal moment in its energy transition. With strategic investments, international collaboration, and strong government support, the country can establish itself as a regional leader in offshore wind energy. The roadmap provides a clear framework for moving from pilot projects to a fully industrialized sector, integrating lessons from global markets while leveraging local strengths. As offshore wind technology matures and costs decline, Turkey can unlock its vast potential, contributing to energy independence, economic resilience, and global climate goals. By addressing financial, regulatory, and environmental challenges, Turkey can set a precedent for sustainable and inclusive energy development in the region.