Building Climate Resilience: UNDP’s Strategy for Capturing Adaptation Progress

The UNDP report proposes a phased approach to measuring global progress on climate change adaptation, emphasizing the use of existing indicators and supporting developing countries in building monitoring systems. It highlights the need for improved tracking of adaptation actions, with the next stocktake scheduled for 2028.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), alongside key authors and contributors, presents a comprehensive report led by independent researcher Joel B. Smith and co-authored by UNDP’s Rohini Kohli, Prakash Bista, and Patricia Velasco, which aims to offer solutions on how countries can effectively measure their progress in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This report is particularly significant following the first Global Stocktake (GST) at COP28 in 2023, where it was determined that there was insufficient information to properly assess whether current and planned adaptation actions are enough to tackle the challenges posed by climate change. The main focus is on finding a way to comprehensively measure adaptation progress as part of the UNFCCC’s ongoing Global Stocktake process, which will next take place in 2028.

The Complexity of Measuring Adaptation Progress

A central challenge in evaluating adaptation is the complexity of tracking actions and outcomes, which varies greatly across sectors like agriculture, water, health, and biodiversity. Unlike mitigation efforts, which are easier to quantify (such as measuring greenhouse gas emissions), adaptation actions are more diffuse, requiring assessments of how climate resilience is built through infrastructure, technology, and policy changes. The report emphasizes that it is simpler to track inputs (such as financial resources allocated to adaptation projects) and outputs (like the number of countries with National Adaptation Plans or the installation of early warning systems) than it is to measure outcomes, such as improved public health or poverty reduction. This difficulty arises because climate impacts vary widely by location and sector, making it hard to use a single metric to capture adaptation efforts across different regions.

The Logic Model: Inputs, Outputs, and Outcomes

The report proposes the use of a logic model to differentiate between inputs, outputs, and outcomes when measuring adaptation. Inputs are defined as actions or resources that enable change, such as funding for climate risk assessments or technology deployment. Outputs refer to concrete actions taken, like the implementation of early warning systems or changes in water management practices. Outcomes, on the other hand, assess the actual improvement in well-being or resilience, such as the reduction in the number of people affected by climate-related disasters or improvements in food security. The logic model helps ensure that the adaptation process is understood as a chain of events, from initial investments to the ultimate goal of improved resilience in the face of climate risks.

Lack of a Universal Adaptation Indicator

A critical issue highlighted in the report is the lack of a universal indicator to measure adaptation. Unlike the global warming potential used to measure greenhouse gas emissions, there is no single metric that can quantify adaptation progress across sectors. As a result, the report suggests using a combination of cross-cutting indicators that are already in use, such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These indicators, while not designed exclusively for adaptation, can provide useful insights into areas like health, income, water security, and food availability, which are all key components of climate resilience. For instance, HDI measures life expectancy, education, and income per capita, which can indirectly indicate how well a country is adapting to climate impacts. Similarly, sector-specific indicators like the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) or the Food and Agriculture Organization’s metrics on food security can be used to gauge adaptation success in particular areas.

Supporting Developing Nations in Adaptation Tracking

The report also stresses the importance of ensuring that the stocktake process is country-driven and universally implementable. Many developing countries, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change, lack the necessary systems for monitoring and evaluating adaptation progress. Therefore, technical and financial support will be crucial to help these countries develop sophisticated Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) systems. The report notes that while some countries already have well-developed MEL systems, others are still in the early stages of building this capacity. Financial and technical assistance, particularly for the least developed nations, will be key in ensuring that all countries can participate fully in the global stocktake process.

Phased Approach for the 2028 and 2033 Stocktakes

In the absence of a universal vulnerability or adaptation indicator, the report recommends a phased approach. For the 2028 stocktake, a limited set of indicators should be used to measure inputs, outputs, and outcomes. These could include the number of countries with adaptation plans, the amount of financing for adaptation, and the number of early warning systems implemented. Over time, this approach can be expanded to include more comprehensive metrics that measure progress across all sectors, such as ecosystems, infrastructure, and cultural heritage. By starting with a small set of widely used indicators, the global community can begin to build a clearer picture of where adaptation efforts are succeeding and where more work is needed.

Ultimately, the report acknowledges that measuring adaptation is an inherently complex task, but by leveraging existing metrics and gradually expanding the scope of future stocktakes, it is possible to create a system that provides valuable insights into how countries are adapting to climate change. The focus on practicality and incremental progress reflects a realistic understanding of the challenges ahead while emphasizing the urgent need to strengthen global climate resilience.