Fueling Maritime Decarbonization: South Africa’s Green Hydrogen Vision and Challenges

The World Bank report highlights South Africa's potential to become a leading supplier of green hydrogen for the maritime sector, contributing to economic growth and job creation. However, challenges such as electricity shortages, port inefficiencies, and financing hurdles must be addressed to realize this opportunity.

The World Bank report prepared by Rico Salgmann, Maximilian Weidenhammer, and Dominik Englert from the Global Transport Unit, examines South Africa’s potential to become a leading supplier of green hydrogen for the global maritime sector. This research builds on the World Bank’s commitment to addressing the decarbonization of global maritime transport, supporting both policy-making at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and identifying country-specific development opportunities. The report highlights South Africa’s strategic position as a future supplier of green shipping fuels and explores the feasibility of green hydrogen projects, especially through case studies in key ports like Saldanha Bay and Boegoebaai.

South Africa's Green Hydrogen Economy and Global Potential

South Africa is positioning itself as a hub for green hydrogen, a clean energy source critical to meeting global carbon reduction targets. As countries seek alternatives to fossil fuels, particularly in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like shipping, green hydrogen and its derivatives, such as ammonia and methanol, are expected to be in high demand. The report suggests that South Africa has the potential to capture a significant share of this global market, contributing to economic growth and job creation. It is projected that by 2050, green hydrogen could add 3.6 percent to the country’s GDP and create 380,000 jobs.

Green Hydrogen’s Key Role in the Maritime Sector

The maritime sector is positioned as both a significant consumer and enabler of green hydrogen in South Africa. The global shipping industry is moving toward hydrogen-based fuels to meet emission reduction goals, with approximately 64 percent of the shipping fleet’s fuel mix expected to be hydrogen-based by 2050. The report estimates that South Africa’s eight commercial ports could demand 56,000 tons of hydrogen by 2030, rising to 530,000 tons by 2050. Moreover, ships bypassing South Africa’s coast, especially those passing the Cape of Good Hope, could generate additional demand of up to 1.3 million tons of hydrogen by 2050. Durban and Richards Bay are identified as the largest consumers of hydrogen-based marine fuels, followed by Cape Town and Saldanha Bay. This forecast highlights the critical role South African ports could play in supporting the international shipping industry’s transition to greener fuels.

Challenges of Electricity and Infrastructure in Green Hydrogen Production

However, the report also identifies significant challenges to achieving South Africa’s green hydrogen ambitions. Chief among them is the country’s ongoing electricity crisis. South Africa’s power generation is largely reliant on an aging coal-fired infrastructure, which has led to frequent load-shedding and electricity shortages. For green hydrogen production to succeed, a massive expansion of renewable energy capacity is required, both to meet the demands of hydrogen production and to alleviate the current energy crisis. Green hydrogen projects will require a significant increase in renewable electricity generation, estimated at around 80 gigawatts by 2050, and improvements in transmission infrastructure to connect renewable energy sources to hydrogen production sites. The report underscores that South Africa’s electricity crisis and green hydrogen development must be addressed simultaneously to avoid competition for resources.

Another challenge is the operational inefficiencies in South Africa’s commercial ports. The country’s ports have been hampered by issues such as poor maintenance and theft, which have affected both imports and exports. The World Bank’s Container Port Performance Index ranked South Africa’s major ports Durban, Gqeberha, and Cape Town among the lowest globally. The inefficiencies in the port system, combined with the challenges of transporting and handling new commodities like hydrogen derivatives, present significant barriers to the development of a green marine fuel market. The report calls for substantial improvements in port infrastructure and operational efficiency to ensure the successful development of hydrogen hubs.

Saldanha Bay: A Case Study for Green Ammonia Production

The Saldanha Bay case study illustrates the technical and economic feasibility of producing green ammonia as a marine fuel. Saldanha Bay, the largest natural deep-water port in the Southern Hemisphere, primarily exports iron ore and handles other bulk commodities. The study projects that by 2035, a green hydrogen facility at the port could produce 50,000 tons of hydrogen annually, converted into 280,000 tons of green ammonia. The estimated capital expenditure for this project is around 2 billion dollars. The case study suggests a phased approach to project development, starting with smaller-scale investments to test market conditions and gradually scaling up production to meet increasing demand from the shipping industry. The report emphasizes the importance of complementary demand sources, such as local industries, to ensure the financial viability of hydrogen production projects during the early stages of market development.

Financing and Policy Support for a Green Marine Fuel Market

Financing remains a significant hurdle for the development of green hydrogen projects in South Africa. Given the high capital costs involved, the report stresses the need for substantial private investment and innovative financing mechanisms. The World Bank suggests that public-private partnerships, blended financing models, and international support from multilateral development banks could help bridge the financing gap. Additionally, the report highlights the need for global policy interventions, such as emissions pricing in the maritime sector, to create a stable market for green marine fuels. This would not only provide a demand signal for hydrogen-based fuels but also help reduce the price gap between green hydrogen and conventional marine fuels.

The World Bank’s report outlines South Africa’s significant potential to become a global leader in green hydrogen production, particularly for the maritime sector. However, realizing this potential will require overcoming significant challenges related to electricity generation, port inefficiencies, and financing. With the right investments and policy support, South Africa’s ports could become major hubs for the global hydrogen economy, contributing to both economic growth and the decarbonization of international shipping.