From Illness to Poverty: Climate Change’s Disproportionate Burden on LMICs

The World Bank’s report highlights the catastrophic health and economic impacts of climate change on low- and middle-income countries, projecting billions of additional illnesses, millions of deaths, and trillions in economic losses by 2050. It calls for urgent investments in climate-resilient health systems to mitigate these growing risks.

The World Bank’s recent report conducted by its Health, Nutrition, and Population Global Practice and Climate Investment Funds, uncovers a grim reality of how climate change intensifies health crises. Drawing on contributions from international economists and public health experts, the report uses advanced climate models and socioeconomic scenarios to estimate the toll of inaction. It projects that between 2026 and 2050, climate-sensitive diseases and other health impacts could lead to 4.1 to 5.2 billion new cases of illness and 14.5 to 15.6 million deaths. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are the hardest hit, bearing nearly three-quarters of the global burden, exacerbating existing health and economic resilience inequalities.

Disproportionate Burdens for Vulnerable Regions

Climate change acts as a force multiplier, worsening extreme heat, expanding the range of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue, and increasing waterborne illnesses and malnutrition. These impacts hit low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) the hardest, where weak healthcare systems and limited resources compound the crisis. Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, is projected to endure 71% of all climate-related health cases and approximately half of all associated deaths by 2050. In terms of mortality, this translates to 6.8 to 7.8 million lives lost in the region. South Asia follows closely with nearly 18% of cases and 25% of deaths, or 3.7 to 4 million fatalities. The report highlights how systemic poverty and fragile infrastructure make these regions particularly vulnerable to cascading health crises.

A Multitrillion-Dollar Economic Toll

The economic costs of climate-related health impacts are staggering. The report estimates these costs could range from $8.6 to $20.8 trillion by 2050, depending on socioeconomic pathways. For LMICs, this represents up to 1.3% of their GDP, posing significant challenges to already strained economies. Sub-Saharan Africa faces the heaviest economic burden, with health-related costs consuming up to 3.6% of its regional GDP. South Asia is also severely impacted, with costs reaching 2.6% of its GDP. These figures underscore the devastating financial toll of inaction, which compounds the human suffering caused by climate change. Notably, these estimates may underestimate the full scale of the crisis, as they exclude broader impacts like non-communicable diseases, mental health issues, and indirect effects like displacement.

Revisiting Past Projections and Filling Knowledge Gaps

Building on earlier assessments, the report incorporates advanced methodologies and data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. It finds that previous projections, such as the World Health Organization’s 2014 estimates of an additional 250,000 deaths annually by 2050, were grossly underestimated. The new analysis suggests nearly 800,000 annual deaths from climate-sensitive diseases over the same period. The gap highlights how rapidly climate impacts are accelerating and underscores the urgent need for robust evidence-based interventions. Moreover, the report critiques the limited adaptation funding directed at health just 6% of global climate adaptation finance urging a shift toward systemic, health-focused resilience strategies.

A Call for Urgent, Transformative Action

The findings present a dire forecast but also a clear pathway for mitigating the dual crises of climate and health. The World Bank emphasizes the need for systemic solutions, advocating for investments in climate-resilient health systems that address not just specific diseases but broader healthcare infrastructure challenges. This includes integrating health adaptation into national climate agendas and scaling up international collaboration. While the report identifies significant data gaps, including excluding indirect health impacts and dynamic migration patterns, it serves as a clarion call for immediate action. Investing in sustainable health systems now can avert millions of deaths and trillions of dollars in economic losses, securing a healthier, more stable future for vulnerable populations. The urgency to act has never been clearer.