Living in the Heat: Bangladesh’s Urban Adaptation to Rising Temperatures

Rising temperatures in Bangladesh are severely impacting public health and productivity, leading to significant economic losses and increased heat-related illnesses. The World Bank report urges comprehensive strategies, including advanced technology and global support, to enhance the country’s resilience to climate-driven heat risks.

A report by the World Bank, led by researchers Iffat Mahmud, Wameq Azfar Raza, and Syed Shabab Wahid, provides an in-depth examination of the severe effects of rising temperatures on the health and economy of Bangladesh. The report sheds light on how escalating temperatures, exacerbated by climate change, are threatening the lives and productivity of Bangladeshis. Using data from over 16,000 individuals across the country, the study highlights Bangladesh's vulnerability to extreme heat events, with a 1.1°C rise in maximum temperatures and an even sharper increase of 4.5°C in the heat index between 1980 and 2023. This "feels like" temperature measure underscores the worsening impact of humidity combined with heat. The World Meteorological Organization reports that the past nine years have been the hottest on record, a trend reflected in Bangladesh, particularly in the capital city of Dhaka. Here, rapid urbanization and population growth have intensified the "urban heat island" effect, which leads to faster warming compared to rural areas. Dhaka’s maximum temperature has risen by 1.4°C, higher than the national average, while its heat index has increased at nearly double the national rate due to reduced vegetation and unplanned development.

Physical Health Deteriorates in Rising Heat

The study shows that extreme heat is impacting both physical and mental health across different demographics in Bangladesh. Illnesses such as persistent cough, heat exhaustion, and diarrhea peak during the hottest months, with children, the elderly, and women facing the highest risks. Heat exhaustion affected 2.6% of survey respondents during the summer, particularly working adults and older individuals over 66, with the likelihood of heat exhaustion rising by 26.5% on days exceeding 35°C. The elderly population experiences significantly higher rates of chronic cough, with cases rising from 3.3% in winter to 6% in summer, an issue attributed to increased air pollution combined with heat. Diarrhea also rises sharply during hot months, affecting 4.4% of people during summer compared to 1.8% in winter. This increase in heat-related illnesses places a substantial strain on the healthcare system and highlights the vulnerability of Bangladesh’s population, especially as access to adequate healthcare remains challenging in certain regions.

Mental Health Struggles in Extreme Temperatures

Mental health is equally affected, with the prevalence of depression and anxiety increasing in summer. Reports of depression rose from 16.2% in winter to 20% in summer, while anxiety increased from 8.3% to 10%. Individuals in regions with temperatures above 35°C are more likely to report symptoms of depression and anxiety, with probabilities increasing by 23.8% and 37.1%, respectively, compared to cooler days below 30°C. These findings underscore the effect of heat on emotional well-being, as heat stress disrupts sleep and general comfort, which can aggravate mental health conditions, especially in densely populated urban areas.

Heat-Related Productivity Losses Strike the Economy

The cumulative impact of these health issues translates into significant productivity losses, ultimately affecting the economy. The study estimates that heat-related physical and mental health conditions contributed to a loss of 25 million workdays in 2024, resulting in economic damages ranging between 1.33 billion dollars and 1.78 billion dollars, or approximately 0.3-0.4% of Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP). The report notes that, on days when temperatures exceed 37°C, productivity losses among working-age individuals rise sharply, illustrating the immediate economic consequences of failing to mitigate the health effects of extreme heat. Without intervention, the economic toll is expected to rise considerably. As global temperatures are predicted to increase by up to 3°C, projections indicate that Bangladesh could lose around 4.9% of its GDP by 2030 solely due to the economic impact of extreme heat on health and productivity.

Strategic Measures to Combat Heat Impact

Given these alarming projections, the report outlines several recommendations to strengthen Bangladesh’s resilience to heat. First, it calls for a coordinated, multisectoral approach to enhance national preparedness against heat waves. This includes formally recognizing heat waves as natural disasters in government policies, which would enable more structured responses and allow better resource allocation. It recommends that Bangladesh establish a task force dedicated to managing the impact of extreme heat, drawing from heat action plans implemented in other countries. In the health sector, strengthening the capacity to handle heat-related illnesses is critical. The report suggests that the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare implement and monitor national guidelines for managing heat-related health risks, including both physical and mental health conditions. Ensuring that health facilities are climate-resilient and equipped to handle surges in heat-related cases will also be essential.

Harnessing Technology and Global Support for Solutions

The use of advanced technologies to predict and prevent heat-related risks is another key recommendation. This involves implementing heat-health early-warning systems and using artificial intelligence to identify and map areas that need increased vegetation to reduce local temperatures. By improving weather data accuracy and expanding the number of weather stations, Bangladesh can ensure that authorities are equipped with timely and reliable information to guide heat-related advisories. Lastly, the report urges Bangladesh to advocate for international support and financing to manage the costs of global warming. By presenting a strong case backed by data on the economic and social impacts of heat, Bangladesh could seek greater investment from the global community to enhance resilience.

This report’s findings highlight the urgency of adopting comprehensive and evidence-based strategies to address the escalating heat-related health risks in Bangladesh. The country's warming trajectory mirrors global trends, and without effective action, both public health and the economy will suffer severe consequences. As Bangladesh is not alone in facing these climate challenges, it can learn from global best practices and implement interventions that address local conditions, particularly in vulnerable urban centers like Dhaka.