EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks, FX spooked before Fed decision; rouble down as Putin orders mobilisation

Emerging market stocks and currencies fell on Wednesday as investors braced for a large U.S. interest rate hike later in the day, while Russia's rouble hit a two-month low after President Vladimir Putin ordered the country's first mobilisation since World War Two. In a significant escalation of the Ukraine war, Putin said he had signed a decree on partial mobilisation and warned that Moscow would respond with the might of all its arsenal if faced with a nuclear threat from the West.

The dollar index hit a fresh two-decade high of 110.87 in a safe-haven bid as Putin's announcement hurt sentiment in a market already jittery about aggressive Fed tightening. Markets are fully pricing in a 75 basis point (bps) Fed rate hike, while placing 17% bets on a massive 100 bps hike.

EM stocks fell 1% after logging declines in the past four out of five sessions, while regional currencies slipped 0.3%. China's yuan touched a 26-month low against the dollar. Emerging market (EM) currencies and stocks have been pressured by a flight to safer assets amid aggressive monetary policy tightening by major central banks to curb soaring prices, fears of an economic downturn and jitters about the war in Ukraine.

"Shocks to EMs will come if (the Fed) goes more hawkish or if there's a suggestion of a 100 bps increase in the future... You'll probably see commodity prices coming down, which a lot of EMs run on," said Shaun Murison, senior market analyst at IG. "The real concern about the war is how it's started more inputs towards inflation and that's really pertaining to energy and food prices."

Russia's rouble tumbled towards 63 against the dollar , with stock markets down more than 3% and energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom at one point down around 12%. Currencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) also came under pressure, with Hungary's forint, the Czech crown and Polish zloty down between 0.2% and 0.5% against the euro.

Regional shares were also dragged lower by a rout in heavyweight tech firms such as e-commerce giant Alibaba Group and food-delivery firm Meituan. Meanwhile, Mexico's peso outperformed EM currencies to inch 0.1% higher as prices of crude, a key export, surged more than 2% after Putin's announcement renewed concerns of tighter supply.

The focus is also on the Brazilian central bank's interest rate decision due later in the day, followed by policy decisions from Turkey and South Africa on Thursday. For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2022, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2022, see https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see For RUSSIAN market report, see

 

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