Building a Fairer Future: How Economic Mobility Beliefs Shape Education Support

The study by the World Bank shows that individuals expecting upward economic mobility are more likely to support tax-funded education reforms, especially if they view success as merit-based and are less risk-averse. Governments can foster public support by promoting fair opportunities and clearly communicating the long-term benefits of educational investments.

The World Bank's Europe and Central Asia Region, together with its Poverty and Equity Global Practice, recently published a study exploring the connection between perceptions of economic mobility and public support for education reforms, specifically in 39 countries across Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Led by researchers Alexandru Cojocaru, Michael Lokshin, and Iván Torre, this work delves into how beliefs about one’s economic trajectory influence openness to tax-financed education reform, a policy area with major implications for inclusive growth and economic resilience. By analyzing data from the Life in Transition Survey, which spans over a decade, the researchers discovered a strong correlation: individuals who expect economic upward mobility, whether for themselves or their children, are consistently more likely to support tax-funded education reforms aimed at strengthening public education. This correlation holds true across various economic environments, whether stable or affected by crises, suggesting that support for educational investments is deeply rooted in personal mobility outlooks.

Economic Self-Interest and Education Reform

The study’s findings indicate that people’s expectations of their future economic mobility shape their views on the value of educational investments, with those anticipating upward mobility more likely to endorse policies that would require tax increases for education reform. The reasons behind this correlation are partly economic; for those expecting to achieve or maintain upward mobility, there is a clear interest in ensuring high-quality public education, which could improve prospects for their children. These people are often willing to forgo some immediate financial comfort in exchange for the potential benefits of enhanced public education that could further support their upward social mobility. This dynamic highlights how self-interest and intergenerational aspirations influence preferences for redistributive policies, especially those focused on education.

Fairness, Risk, and Support for Tax-Funded Education

Further analysis shows that support for education reform is not only driven by mobility expectations but also by beliefs about fairness and risk tolerance. Those who perceive economic success as a result of effort, skills, and merit rather than connections or unethical means—are notably more supportive of education reforms that promote meritocratic values. Such individuals see education reform as a pathway for creating a more equitable society where hard work can lead to better socioeconomic outcomes. On the other hand, more risk-averse people are generally less supportive of these reforms, as their preference for financial stability makes them more cautious about policies requiring higher taxes with uncertain outcomes. By measuring willingness to pay for education through additional taxes, the researchers aimed to understand the direct trade-offs that people are willing to make between present consumption and long-term public benefits.

Rigorous Analysis Reveals Consistent Trends

The research methodology is built on robust statistical techniques, including an instrumental variable approach that allows the authors to account for unobserved individual traits that could influence both mobility expectations and support for reforms. This approach strengthens the study's conclusions by ensuring that the relationship between upward mobility expectations and support for education reform is not confounded by factors such as personal optimism or pessimism. The Life in Transition Survey data offers a reliable basis for this research, with its repeated cross-national sampling capturing shifting perspectives on both mobility and policy preferences over time. The survey covers three key periods 2010, 2016, and 2023 which include times of economic stability as well as post-crisis conditions, such as the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and more recent economic challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Shifts in Attitudes Across Economic Conditions

In comparing these three rounds of survey data, the authors observed that the connection between upward mobility expectations and support for education reform has remained relatively stable, with a modest increase in strength over time. For instance, in 2010, the probability that upward mobility expectations would predict support for education reform was lower than in 2016 and 2023, suggesting that optimism for intergenerational mobility has grown slightly as a predictor of reform support. Interestingly, the association between beliefs about fairness and support for reforms also intensified during periods of economic stability, which may indicate that people are more likely to commit to long-term reforms when they feel their economy is on solid footing. This relationship emphasizes the nuanced role of socio-economic stability in shaping public attitudes toward policies requiring future-oriented investment.

Fostering Public Confidence in Education Reform

The authors underscore the importance of managing expectations about socioeconomic mobility to build public support for education reforms, particularly in middle-income countries aiming for higher growth trajectories. The results suggest that governments could boost the perceived legitimacy of these costly reforms by fostering merit-based opportunities and communicating how educational improvements align with broader economic goals. Notably, the study highlights that in regions with relatively low levels of intergenerational mobility and high perceptions of economic unfairness, people may be less inclined to support tax-funded educational improvements. Therefore, governments might benefit from reinforcing the narrative that educational reforms will create a fairer, more meritocratic society, especially by addressing existing disparities and demonstrating a commitment to equitable policy implementation.

This study points to an underlying challenge for governments across Europe and Central Asia: the prevalence of beliefs that social mobility and access to opportunity are often limited by non-meritocratic factors, such as personal connections or socio-economic background. This perspective poses a barrier to gaining widespread support for educational reforms that could enhance mobility and reduce inequality. The researchers suggest that sustained public endorsement for these reforms is more likely if governments take active steps to address inequalities in opportunity and to communicate the long-term societal benefits of these policies. By building confidence in a fair economic landscape, governments can potentially ease public concerns about tax-financed reforms, helping ensure that these policies can be carried out inclusively and effectively.