Illuminating Afghanistan’s Recovery: How Nighttime Lights Reveal Economic Resilience

A World Bank study using nighttime light data reveals Afghanistan's economy showed resilience post-2021, with localized recoveries in conflict-affected regions despite official GDP contractions. The findings highlight shifts in economic geography and the need for updated metrics to capture informal and regional economic activities.

The World Bank's Poverty and Equity Global Practice has undertaken a groundbreaking analysis of Afghanistan’s post-2021 economy, using nighttime light emissions as an innovative metric to track economic activity. Researchers Oscar Barriga Cabanillas, Walker Kosmidou-Bradley, Silvia Redaelli, Eigo Tateishi, and Ivo Teruggi explored how the country adapted to the political and military upheaval caused by the Taliban's takeover and the withdrawal of international forces. Their findings reveal a complex mix of economic contraction, regional shifts, and unexpected recoveries. While official GDP data shows Afghanistan’s economy shrinking by 21% in 2021 and remaining weak through 2022, the analysis of nighttime lights suggests a more nuanced story. This unconventional approach provides a more consistent and independent lens for evaluating the country’s economic dynamics, particularly in a data-scarce environment.

Nighttime Lights as a Window into Economic Activity

By leveraging satellite imagery, the researchers distinguished "civilian" light emissions from those of foreign military bases, which had skewed Afghanistan’s economic indicators for years. Military installations once accounted for up to 30% of the country’s nighttime light, inflating perceptions of local economic activity in areas such as Kandahar. When these installations were removed, total nighttime light emissions fell by 23% in 2021. However, civilian luminosity a more accurate reflection of local economic activity declined by only 7%. This smaller contraction highlights the planned nature of military withdrawals rather than an economic collapse. Importantly, civilian lights began recovering by late 2022 and, by 2023, surpassed pre-2020 levels by 10.5%. This recovery signals resilience in Afghanistan’s local economies, even amid widespread challenges.

A Changing Economic Geography

The recovery revealed through nighttime lights was not evenly distributed across Afghanistan. Kabul, traditionally the country’s economic hub, saw its relative contribution to total civilian light emissions decline. Regions historically marred by conflict, such as Khost, Badakhshan, and the west and northeast provinces, experienced significant growth. Khost, in particular, recorded a remarkable 63% increase in civilian luminosity, reflecting the emergence of new economic activities and the benefits of reduced conflict. These shifts align with a dramatic drop in violence post-2021, as conflict-related deaths decreased by 90%. The "no-conflict dividend" appears to have catalyzed economic decentralization, allowing previously marginalized areas to contribute more significantly to national activity.

Bridging the Gap Between GDP and Reality

The disparity between civilian luminosity trends and official GDP figures underscores the limitations of Afghanistan’s economic metrics. The country’s national accounts rely on outdated methodologies that fail to account for shifts in economic geography and the informal sector's growing dominance. With informal activity comprising 72% of the economy before 2021, its likely expansion remains largely invisible in official statistics. Furthermore, Afghanistan’s current GDP measures are ill-equipped to capture the contributions of rural and decentralized regions. This research calls for an overhaul of the country’s statistical framework, including updated surveys, improved tracking of informal economic activity, and mechanisms to monitor inflation more accurately. Such changes are essential to better understanding Afghanistan’s evolving economy and addressing its regional disparities.

The Promise of Geospatial Data for Policy and Planning

The study also highlights the potential of geospatial data to inform economic policy in conflict-affected regions. Nighttime lights provide granular insights into economic activity, offering a valuable complement to traditional metrics in data-scarce environments. The researchers demonstrated how this approach could be used to track trade patterns, agricultural productivity, and the informal sector’s role in recovery. The findings underline the need for further exploration of these areas, particularly as Afghanistan navigates its transition to a more decentralized and inclusive economy. The marked recovery in nighttime luminosity reflects pockets of resilience and growth, driven by reduced conflict and adaptive local economies. However, the full potential of these insights can only be realized through sustained efforts to modernize Afghanistan’s economic measurement systems and foster balanced regional development.

The research sheds light on Afghanistan’s resilience in the face of extraordinary challenges. While the official narrative depicts an economy struggling to recover, the analysis of nighttime lights reveals a more hopeful reality, with significant recoveries in areas freed from conflict. The decentralization of economic activity, with growth shifting away from Kabul toward rural and historically marginalized regions, signals a potential transformation. For Afghanistan to rebuild successfully, it must prioritize improving its data systems, fostering entrepreneurship, and ensuring equitable resource distribution. Only then can the country chart a stable and inclusive path to economic growth.