India's Working-Age Population Set to Surge in Upcoming Census: SBI Report

India's working-age population is projected to reach 64.4% in the next census, according to SBI Research. The demographic shift reveals significant regional differences, with northern states driving growth. The elderly population is also rising, while urbanization trends indicate an increase in million-plus cities.

India's working-age population is projected to reach 64.4% in the upcoming national census, according to a report by SBI Research. This trend is expected to continue, rising to 65.2% by 2031, the report noted on Tuesday.

The working-age group, defined as individuals aged 15-59, has grown from 55.4% in 1991 to 60.7% in 2021. However, the average annual growth rate is on a downward slope, falling from 2.20% in 1971 to an anticipated 1.00% by 2024. This puts India's population in the range of 1.38-1.42 billion by 2024, SBI Research indicated.

Regional disparities show southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana experiencing a decline in population share, while northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar drive growth. Collectively, the North and Eastern regions are expected to comprise 52% of the nation's population. Administrative preparations for the long-delayed census are in progress.

Delayed from its original 2021 schedule due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the census plays a crucial role in governance by providing essential socio-economic and demographic data. The first census was conducted in 1872, and the upcoming one is anticipated to capture the evolution of a digitally progressive India.

The share of children aged 0-14 peaked in 1971 and has been declining since. By 2024, this group is projected to represent 24.3% of the population, down from 30.9% in 2011, according to a report by SBI Research's Chief Economic Adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh.

Elderly population proportions have been rising since 1951, reaching an estimated 10.7% by 2024 and likely to climb further to 13.1% by 2031. Quoting an OECD report, SBI Research highlighted that about a quarter of the incremental global workforce in the next decade will emerge from India. Consequently, India's working-age population may exceed 1 billion by 2030, despite the aging trends in developed nations.

India's median age is forecasted to increase from 24 years in 2021 to between 28-29 years in 2023-24, keeping it one of the world's youngest nations. The report contrasts this with China's median age, which is now 39.5 years up from 34.5 years in 2011. The potential demographic dividends could be significant, acting as a growth multiplier in the coming decade.

India has seen a steady rise in its elderly population since 1961, accelerated by decreased death rates from health interventions after 1981. The 60+ age bracket has grown from 7.3% in 1991 to an estimated 10.7% in the upcoming census.

Urbanization is accelerating in India, with the urban population expected to rise from 31.1% in 2011 to 35-37% by the 2024 census. Furthermore, the proportion of Indians living in urban areas with populations over 1 million grew from 14.3% in 2014 to 16.6% in 2023.

The increasing urbanization has led to a rise in million-plus cities, growing from 18 in the 1991 census to 52 in 2011. The 2024 census is expected to identify around 75-80 cities with populations exceeding one million.

(With inputs from agencies.)