Boeing Raises 20-Year Forecast Amid Rising Passenger Demand

Boeing has increased its 20-year forecast for new jetliner deliveries by 3% to 43,975, driven by passenger demand, airline competition, and the replacement of older planes. Aviation, recovering from pandemic setbacks, now faces labor and supply challenges. Boeing projects a near-doubling of the global aircraft fleet by 2043.

Boeing has updated its 20-year forecast for new jetliner deliveries, increasing it by 3% to 43,975 planes. This adjustment is fueled by the strength of passenger demand, rising airline competition, and the need to replace older, less efficient aircraft.

The aviation sector, which was severely impacted by the pandemic, is now rebounding sharply. This resurgence has led to labor and parts shortages, along with other supply chain issues, causing manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus to struggle to meet the significant demand. Airlines are experiencing multi-year waits for new airplanes.

According to Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice president of commercial marketing, the retirement rates of older airplanes have dropped by half over the past four years due to the lack of new aircraft entering the market. He expects this issue to be resolved in the medium to long term as supply constraints ease.

Boeing predicts that single-aisle airplanes will make up 76% of forecasted demand, with 33,380 deliveries by 2043. The company also expects deliveries to include 8,065 widebody planes, 1,525 regional jets, and 1,005 freighters. Half of these new deliveries will replace older models, while the other half will expand airline fleets.

The global aircraft fleet is projected to nearly double over the next 20 years, from 26,750 jets in 2023 to 50,170 jets by 2043. Additionally, Boeing has revised its industry-wide passenger traffic growth forecast to 4.7%. The company has been addressing a safety crisis since January following an emergency involving an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9. The FAA has mandated that Boeing demonstrate quality and safety improvements before expanding 737 MAX production.

(With inputs from agencies.)