Euro Zone Government Bond Yields Dip Ahead of PMI Data

Euro zone government bond yields slightly decreased before the release of French, German, and euro area PMI data. The French debt risk premium remains near its highest level since 2017. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell, while Italy's 10-year yield also declined. Money markets are pricing in significant rate cuts by the European Central Bank in 2024.

Euro zone government bond yields edged down ahead of French, German and euro area PMI data on Friday, with the French debt risk premium not far from its highest levels since 2017. Bund yields were on track for a weekly rise as hopes that France's National Rally will backtrack on fiscally expensive pledges, avoiding the risks of a budget crisis at the heart of Europe, stopped last week's rush into safe-haven assets.

Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro area, fell 2 basis points (bps) to 2.41% and was set to end the week up 6 bps. The gap between French and German 10-year yields , a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French government bonds, was at 72.5 bps. It hit 82.34 bps last Friday, its highest level since February 2017.

Italy's 10-year yield was down one bp at 3.93%, with the Italian-German yield gap at 152 bps. Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, dropped 0.5 to 2.82%.

Money markets priced in a cumulative 65 bps of European Central Bank rate cuts in 2024, implying a further 25 bps move and a 60% chance of a third cut in 2024. They also discount 47 bps from the Fed this year.

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