Emerging Markets Hold Steady Amid U.S. Rate Cut Speculations

Emerging markets stocks and currencies remained relatively stable as investors considered potential early U.S. interest rate cuts. The MSCI index for EM stocks edged up slightly, while currencies dipped. Political uncertainties, such as South Africa's parliamentary session and various global economic activities, played a significant role in market sentiment.

Emerging markets stocks and currencies were little changed on Friday as investors weighed the probability of early U.S. interest rate cuts, while awaiting the South African parliament's first sitting during the day.

The MSCI index for EM stocks edged up 0.1% as of 0911 GMT, while the currencies gauge slipped 0.1%. Both indexes were on track for a subdued week, marked by political uncertainties and a soft inflation data propping up bets of a September U.S. rate cut, right ahead of the Fed's projection of just one cut this year and likely as late as December.

"With the Fed's persistence to maintain rates close to current levels over the medium term, naturally this is a negative for EM assets," said Charlie Bird, FX Trader at Verto. "However, if U.S. data foreshadows a weakening jobs market combined with more unexpected drops in inflation, a dovish pivot from the Fed will quickly see a bid for yield in EM."

Investors eagerly await the first sitting of South Africa's parliament since an election last month, where new lawmakers will be sworn in and the next President elected. The rand was down 0.2% against the dollar. President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to win a new term in office as his ANC party has the largest number of seats, but may have to make significant policy concessions to political adversaries.

"We are going OW (overweight), with a preference for duration in the current macro backdrop. As the likelihood of DA (Democratic Alliance) participation in a government of national unity now increasing, market sentiment towards SOAF (South African international government bonds) is likely to be supportive in the near-term," Citi analysts wrote. Pakistan's benchmark share index jumped 1% to a record high, on continued optimism from the government's budget aimed to strengthen the case for a new International Monetary Fund bailout deal. The index was on track for its best week since late-February.

Russia's rouble was mixed in different trading markets, a day after U.S. sanctions on Moscow Exchange. Hungary's forint was set for its steepest weekly drop against the dollar since March 2023 and the Polish zloty since September.

Elsewhere, the World Bank approved a $2.25 billion loan for Nigeria to help stabilise its economy following reforms and scale up support for the poor. Peru held interest rate steady, bucking expectations of a 25-basis-point cut, while the IMF board cleared the way for Argentina to draw $800 million to help drive its economic recovery.

HIGHLIGHTS: ** Mexico's Sheinbaum backs Lopez Obrador's judicial reform, says 'nothing to worry about'

** Ghana's bondholders to re-engage government next week on debt rework ** Fitch to review Hungary, Angola's credit ratings

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