North America lumber supply strain to flare up on Russia timber ban

Russia's ban on the export of forestry products until the end of 2022 will rattle an already tight North American lumber market as exports from Europe are redirected to meet domestic demand, company executives and analysts said. Dogged by rising fuel costs, demand exceeding rail transport capacities and other shipment snags, U.S. home builders have been struggling to find lumber and other raw materials needed to deliver on a massive backlog of projects from last year.

Russia's ban on the export of forestry products until the end of 2022 will rattle an already tight North American lumber market as exports from Europe are redirected to meet domestic demand, company executives and analysts said.

Dogged by rising fuel costs, demand exceeding rail transport capacities and other shipment snags, U.S. home builders have been struggling to find lumber and other raw materials needed to deliver on a massive backlog of projects from last year. Earlier in March, Russia banned exports of certain goods such as telecom, medical, auto, agricultural, electrical and tech equipment, as well as some forestry products to retaliate against Western sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's forestry exports ban could make things worse by removing as much as 3% of U.S. lumber imports via Europe, leading to higher prices for lumber in the United States. The raw material was trading at around $651.90 per thousand board feet (MBF) on Monday, more than 45% higher when compared with five years earlier.

About 10% of the lumber consumed in Europe comes from Russia. With the ban, Europe is more likely to move most of its production to domestic markets, slashing exports to offshore markets such as the U.S. and Canada. Even though the United States sources most of its lumber from Canada and domestically, if the supplies are already tight and you lose 3% of that pipeline, that's a big chunk, Paul Jannke from Forest Economic Advisors said.

Lumber prices will bounce between $500/MBF and $1,000/MBF, more than 30% above the average of the past five years, Jannke added. "We have been made aware of possible disruption of oriental strand board produced out of Latvia and Romania. This could put additional stress on an already undersupplied U.S. panel market", Kyle Little, chief operating officer of Sherwood Lumber, said.

Canadian lumber producer Canfor Corp is already seeing an increase in demand for timber from the Baltics and central Europe, according to a company spokesperson.

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