Global Uranium Resources Sufficient for Nuclear Power Growth Through 2050 and Beyond

The 2024 edition of the Red Book analyzes official government data, providing a detailed statistical profile of the global uranium industry and covering the years 2021 and 2022.

A recent comprehensive report titled Uranium – Resources, Production and Demand 2024, also known as the "Red Book", emphasizes that the global uranium market can sustain the continued use of nuclear energy, as well as its significant growth, through 2050 and beyond. This extensive publication, jointly prepared by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), presents the most up-to-date insights on the uranium industry, exploring factors such as exploration, resources, production, and the long-term outlook of the uranium market.

The 2024 edition of the Red Book analyzes official government data, providing a detailed statistical profile of the global uranium industry and covering the years 2021 and 2022. Among the key findings are projections for nuclear power installed capacity, uranium supply and demand, as well as trends in exploration and production. It also contains a thorough review of the industry's status, including profiles of 62 countries detailing mine development plans, social and environmental impacts, regulatory frameworks, and national policies surrounding uranium mining.

Sufficient Uranium Resources to Meet Future Demand

As of January 1, 2023, global identified recoverable uranium resources stood at 7,934,500 tonnes. These resources are defined as those that can be recovered at market prices ranging from $40 to $260 per kilogram of uranium (equivalent to $15 to $100 per pound of U3O8). Compared to the figures in the 2022 edition of the report, this represents a modest increase of less than 0.5%. However, potential new additions to the uranium resource base may come from undiscovered or unconventional sources. This is largely driven by the sharp rise in uranium spot prices since mid-2021, as well as the commitment made at COP28 by 31 countries to triple their nuclear energy capacity by 2050. This promise, if realized, would significantly increase global demand for uranium.

Furthermore, the report suggests that the uranium resource base is more than adequate to meet the needs of a high-growth nuclear power scenario through 2050 and beyond, provided there are significant investments in uranium exploration, improved mining technologies, and new production centers.

Growing Exploration and Investment in Uranium

Following a period of decline in uranium exploration and mining investments due to weak market conditions and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, global uranium exploration and mine development expenditures have experienced a dramatic increase in recent years. By 2022, annual expenditures on uranium exploration reached $800 million, with preliminary figures for 2023 indicating a further rise to $840 million. These investments are essential to secure future uranium supplies and support the growing demand for nuclear energy.

The report highlights that continued investments in exploration and mine development will be crucial to ensuring that uranium is available when needed. These efforts will also help replenish uranium reserves as demand for nuclear power increases globally. The current trend in increased exploration spending underscores the growing recognition of uranium's role in supporting the future energy transition and the global push for net-zero emissions.

Challenges to Expanding Uranium Production

Despite the optimistic outlook for uranium resources and production, the report acknowledges several challenges to expanding uranium mining and production in the coming years. One of the primary hurdles is the time and capital-intensive nature of establishing new production centers. The lead time to develop new uranium mines and milling facilities can be substantial, often due to the complex regulatory processes and lengthy permitting timelines in many jurisdictions. Additionally, the current risk-averse investment climate in the mining industry, along with geopolitical challenges and technical difficulties in developing new mines, may further complicate the situation.

While production has seen a modest increase of 4% from 2020 to 2022, the report suggests that production growth is expected to continue in the near future. However, the expansion of uranium production must be carefully managed to address these challenges and ensure that sufficient supplies are available to meet future demand.

Strategic Investments and Policy Support Required

To ensure the availability of uranium for the expanding global nuclear power sector, strategic investments in new exploration, mining operations, and advanced processing techniques will be essential. Governments and industry stakeholders must take proactive steps to develop new production facilities, streamline regulatory processes, and support the growth of uranium supply chains. This will not only help secure the uranium necessary for meeting the growing demand for nuclear energy but also contribute to energy security and climate goals.

The Red Book also highlights the importance of effective policy support to encourage long-term investments in uranium production. Governments around the world must ensure that policies are in place to foster the development of uranium resources, particularly in regions with significant untapped potential. This will require coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors, as well as collaboration between nations to address the global challenges of uranium supply and demand.

Conclusion

The 2024 Red Book demonstrates that uranium resources are sufficient to support the continued growth of nuclear energy through 2050 and beyond, with additional potential from undiscovered or unconventional sources. However, meeting the demands of a growing nuclear power sector will require significant investments in exploration, production, and processing technologies. With timely action, the uranium market can ensure that future generations of nuclear power plants are well-supplied, helping to meet the energy needs of a decarbonized world.

As the global energy landscape evolves and the world strives toward sustainability, the strategic development of uranium resources will be a critical component in ensuring a reliable, clean, and secure energy future.