Electrifying Kampala’s Transit: A Path to Cleaner, Greener, and Smarter Mobility

A comprehensive study by Makerere University and partners proposes an electrified metro system for Kampala to combat congestion, pollution, and fossil fuel dependence by 2060. Modeling shows this shift could cut transport emissions by up to 85%, paving the way for a cleaner, more inclusive urban future.

A bold and comprehensive vision for transforming Kampala’s urban mobility landscape by 2060 has emerged in a landmark study. The research, jointly conducted by Makerere University, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, and other affiliated institutions, sets out to address the Ugandan capital’s deepening transportation crisis. Leveraging the sophisticated KAMPALA-TIMES model—an adaptation of the globally recognized TIMES-VEDA energy planning framework—the study simulates multiple future scenarios for urban transit. Its ultimate goal: to chart a path toward a low-carbon, inclusive, and economically sustainable transportation system powered by electricity.

From Gridlock to Green Mobility

Kampala’s current transportation network is plagued by inefficiencies, chronic congestion, and over-reliance on fossil fuels. The city’s rapid population growth and unplanned expansion have placed immense pressure on its outdated infrastructure. Informal modes of transport, such as boda bodas (motorcycle taxis), dominate the roads, while private vehicle use continues to surge, leading to increased pollution and economic strain. Recognizing that conventional planning cannot solve such systemic problems, the researchers used Schwartz’s scenario planning methodology to model four plausible futures for Kampala’s transport sector. These include the Business-as-Usual (BAU), Reduction in Electricity Consumption (REC), Renewable Electricity Portfolio (REP), and Carbon Reduction Target (CRT) scenarios.

Each scenario presents a distinct vision for the future, shaped by key uncertainties in policy responsiveness, investment levels, energy supply, and technological adoption. The CRT scenario, the most transformative of the four, proposes a sweeping shift toward electrified public transit. It centers on the development of a metro rail system supported by electric buses, aimed at replacing fossil-fuel-based transport options and significantly cutting emissions.

Carbon Cuts and Cleaner Cities

The potential environmental impact of the CRT scenario is striking. According to model simulations, it could reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector by as much as 85% compared to baseline projections. A major portion of this reduction, about 47.5% is achieved through electrification alone. The introduction of electric mass rapid transit would shift Kampala’s mobility pattern away from emissions-heavy modes toward a cleaner, more efficient future. While the initial capital investments in rail infrastructure and electric vehicles are considerable, the researchers argue that long-term savings in fuel costs, improved public health, and reduced environmental degradation make the project economically viable.

The KAMPALA-TIMES model offers a granular view of the city’s transport-energy dynamics. It includes detailed modules on freight and passenger transportation, energy consumption patterns, and fuel supply chains. One of the model’s key revelations is the disproportionate reliance on biomass, especially charcoal, as a dominant energy source in Kampala. While charcoal remains affordable and accessible, its widespread use has devastating effects on forests and air quality. Transitioning to an electricity-based transit system, particularly one powered by Uganda’s abundant hydropower and emerging solar resources, is presented as a more sustainable, scalable alternative.

Institutions and Infrastructure: Bridging the Gap

Despite the ambitious scope of the CRT scenario, the study points out that significant institutional and policy hurdles remain. Although the Ministry of Works, Housing, and Transport has national oversight of the transport sector, Kampala lacks a localized, city-specific framework to guide urban mobility planning. This regulatory gap undermines efforts to implement integrated, long-term strategies for sustainable transit. The researchers stress that achieving the CRT vision requires multi-level governance, involving collaboration among local authorities, national agencies, private investors, and civil society.

In addition to institutional coordination, behavioral change will play a key role. Shifting commuter preferences from informal and private transport to organized, electrified public transit will demand targeted awareness campaigns and consistent service delivery. The study emphasizes that without public buy-in and reliable infrastructure, even the most well-designed transit systems risk underutilization.

Kampala’s Moment of Choice

What makes this study particularly compelling is its holistic approach. It does not treat sustainability as merely a technical fix but as a socio-economic transformation. The electrification of transport is framed not only as a path to reduced emissions but also as a catalyst for equitable access, job creation, and urban resilience. The CRT scenario positions Kampala as a potential leader among rapidly growing African cities looking to modernize without repeating the mistakes of car-centric urbanization.

As the study concludes, Kampala stands at a critical crossroad. The decisions its leaders make today will shape not just the city's infrastructure, but its environmental footprint and quality of life for generations to come. With the right mix of policy reform, infrastructure investment, and public engagement, the city has the opportunity to redefine itself, not just as Uganda’s capital, but as a model of clean, connected, and climate-resilient urban development across the continent.