Short-Lived La Niña Expected to Fade by Mid-2025, WMO Reports

La Niña refers to a large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with atmospheric changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall.

The weak La Niña event that emerged in December 2024 is expected to be short-lived, with forecasts indicating a return to ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months. According to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 60% probability of neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during March-May 2025, rising to 70% for the April-June 2025 period. The likelihood of an El Niño event developing remains negligible through this timeframe.

Understanding ENSO Predictions and Their Global Impacts

The forecasts, produced by WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, suggest that the current cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will soon return to normal. However, due to the "boreal spring predictability barrier," there remains some uncertainty in long-term ENSO forecasts.

"Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and their associated impacts on global weather and climate patterns are critical tools for early warnings and proactive decision-making," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. "These forecasts have translated into millions of dollars in economic savings for key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and transport while also saving lives by supporting disaster risk preparedness."

La Niña refers to a large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with atmospheric changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall. Typically, La Niña conditions bring climate impacts opposite to those of El Niño, particularly in tropical regions. However, these naturally occurring climate events are taking place against the broader backdrop of human-induced climate change, which continues to drive global temperatures higher, intensify extreme weather events, and alter seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.

January 2025: The Warmest on Record Despite La Niña

Despite the weak La Niña conditions since December 2024, global temperatures have continued to rise. January 2025 was officially recorded as the warmest January in history. This underscores how human-induced climate change is exacerbating warming trends, even in the presence of naturally occurring climate variability such as La Niña.

Beyond ENSO: WMO’s Broader Climate Outlook

While ENSO remains a key driver of global climate patterns, other factors also play significant roles. To provide a more comprehensive climate outlook, WMO issues Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate the influence of key climate variability patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole. These updates also monitor sea surface temperature anomalies in the North and South Tropical Atlantic, as well as global and regional surface temperature and precipitation trends.

With above-normal sea surface temperatures expected across all major oceans—except for the near-equatorial eastern Pacific—the latest GSCU predicts above-average temperatures across nearly all land areas worldwide. These persistent trends highlight the urgency of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts to address the growing risks posed by global warming.

Photograph: "The Burning Ocean" by Matthew Wilson

Accompanying this report is an image of a dramatic ocean sunset, with vibrant orange and yellow hues reflected on the water's surface. Waves gently lap against the shore beneath a sky filled with striking cloud formations. This winning entry from the WMO 2025 Calendar Competition captures the intensity of changing oceanic and atmospheric conditions in a warming world.

Infographic: ENSO Probabilities for March-May 2025

A visual representation of the latest ENSO predictions highlights a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions, a 40% probability of continued La Niña, and a 0% likelihood of El Niño for the March-May 2025 period. This infographic provides essential context for understanding how these climatic shifts may influence weather patterns worldwide in the coming months.