COP Troika's Contradiction: Oil Production Surge vs. Climate Commitments

Azerbaijan, UAE, and Brazil, past and current hosts of UN climate conferences, are set to increase their oil and gas production by 33% by 2035, contradicting climate commitments. Experts criticize this expansion, highlighting the contradiction and urging stronger actions to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

In a new analysis, Azerbaijan, the UAE, and Brazil, past and future hosts of the UN climate conference, are projected to increase their combined oil and gas production by 33% by 2035, starkly contradicting their climate action commitments.

The US-based research group Oil Change International revealed that the UAE and Brazil are set to boost production by 37% and 38%, respectively, with Azerbaijan increasing by 4% as the future COP29 host.

This comes after the recent Dubai climate summit's commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy capacity, and double energy efficiency by 2030. Oil Change International criticized the ongoing oil and gas investments as undermining these promises.

Despite the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s assertion that tripling global renewable capacity by 2030 is possible if countries adhere to the UAE deal, actions by the COP Troika raise doubts. Climate Action Tracker rates Azerbaijan's climate efforts as "critically insufficient" after dropping its 2030 emissions target.

The COP Troika must demonstrate its commitment at a UN General Assembly meeting and deliver the 'Roadmap to Mission 1.5', aiming to encourage elevated national climate plans, or NDCs, due by February 2025. Critics argue that continued fossil fuel expansion undermines 1.5-degree Celsius goals and global climate efforts.

Romain Ioualalen, Oil Change International Global Policy Manager, stated, "Expanding fossil fuel production is fundamentally incompatible with the ambition to submit '1.5-aligned NDCs. It is time for the Troika to choose between fossil fuel expansion or a livable future."

Linda Kalcher, Executive Director of Strategic Perspectives, emphasized that 2024 will test the UAE's commitments made in Dubai, urging the Troika to show credible leadership.

(With inputs from agencies.)