Climate Change and Fragility: The Urgent Need for Conflict-Sensitive Solutions

The World Bank's report highlights how climate change exacerbates fragility and conflict in fragile and conflict-affected regions, intensifying issues like food insecurity, resource competition, and migration. It calls for conflict-sensitive climate financing and long-term investments in resilience to break the cycle of instability and promote sustainable development.

A report produced by the World Bank explores the intricate relationship between climate change, fragility, and conflict. It highlights the immense challenges that low- and middle-income regions categorized as fragile and conflict-affected (FCS) face in tackling both development and environmental threats. The World Bank’s research shows that by 2030, two-thirds of the global poor will be living in fragile and conflict-affected areas. These regions are already struggling with violent conflict, which has dramatically escalated in recent years. As a result, they receive 80% of the financing available to humanitarian organizations. However, increasing complexity and the intersection of fragility with environmental issues like food insecurity, resource scarcity, and migration continue to worsen the situation. These dynamics create a vicious cycle, where environmental degradation and economic instability feed into violence, and vice versa.

Fragility and Conflict Escalated by Climate Change

One of the report’s key insights is the way climate variability exacerbates fragility. Climate change disrupts agriculture, leads to food scarcity and malnutrition, and increases competition for natural resources. This, in turn, leads to conflicts over resources such as water and arable land, particularly in regions already affected by violence. Environmental degradation such as deforestation, soil erosion, and pollution also intensifies social tensions. Moreover, climate-induced migration puts additional pressure on limited resources, further fueling conflict. In such settings, economic decline and loss of livelihoods, caused by climate impacts, exacerbate existing social and political divisions, pushing these regions into a persistent cycle of fragility. The report makes clear that fragile and conflict-affected geographies bear the brunt of climate change, despite contributing minimally to global carbon emissions.

Fragile States at the Epicenter of Climate Disasters

The World Bank’s analysis categorizes FCS countries into different groups based on their vulnerability to fragility and conflict. These countries, which have been on the World Bank’s FCS List since 2006, are grouped into categories like chronic FCS, recurrent FCS, and rarely FCS, each reflecting the degree of fragility they experience. The methodology is designed to show the systemic relationship between fragility, conflict, and climate risk. The report highlights how the global response to climate change, including agreements like the Paris Agreement, often overlooks the specific vulnerabilities of FCS nations. Despite being home to 15% of the world’s population, FCS countries contribute less than 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, they disproportionately suffer from climate-induced disasters, with more than 60% of global climate-related deaths occurring in these regions. The effects of climate change, from extreme weather events to prolonged droughts, further strain these already fragile areas, increasing the likelihood of violence and social breakdown.

Decarbonization Challenges in Fragile Economies

One of the most significant challenges highlighted in the report is the difficulty these countries face in decarbonizing their economies. Many FCS countries are highly dependent on fossil fuels for economic growth and stability, and efforts to transition to cleaner energy could further destabilize them. The report notes that fossil fuel subsidies, while contributing to climate change, play a critical role in maintaining social and economic stability in these regions. As such, reducing emissions in FCS requires conflict-sensitive climate financing that takes into account the specific challenges these countries face. The transition to low-carbon development, while necessary, could have significant geopolitical implications, particularly in countries that rely heavily on fossil fuel revenues. The shift towards cleaner energy may result in power shifts both within and between countries, further complicating the situation in fragile regions.

Agricultural Vulnerability in Conflict Zones

Another major point of concern is the impact of climate change on agriculture in FCS. Many of these countries rely heavily on small-scale, rainfed agriculture, which is highly vulnerable to climate variability. As temperatures rise and droughts become more frequent, the risk of food insecurity grows, increasing the likelihood of conflict. The report points to data from the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which shows that chronic FCS countries are experiencing some of the most severe droughts in the world. This underscores the urgent need for investment in climate adaptation and resilience in these regions. Without such investments, the report warns that climate-induced disasters will continue to increase in frequency and intensity, pushing already fragile countries further into conflict and instability.

A Paradigm Shift for Conflict-Sensitive Climate Financing

The report concludes by calling for a fundamental shift in how the international community approaches the nexus of climate change, fragility, and conflict. It recommends integrating conflict prevention and peacebuilding into climate change strategies and financing for development. Climate interventions in fragile regions must be conflict-sensitive, ensuring that they do not inadvertently exacerbate existing tensions or create new conflicts. This requires a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between climate change and conflict, as well as flexible, context-specific policies that can adapt to the unique challenges faced by FCS countries. The report emphasizes the need for long-term investments in resilience and adaptation, particularly in areas such as agriculture, water management, and natural resource governance, to break the cycle of fragility and conflict and foster sustainable development in these vulnerable regions.