Rising Global Temperatures Despite Potential La Nina Conditions

The World Meteorological Organization reports a 60% chance of La Nina conditions, associated with colder winters, emerging at the end of this year. The impact of La Nina, which contrasts with El Nino, varies with its intensity and timing. Climate change continues to influence global temperature trends regardless of these natural events.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlights a 60% likelihood that La Nina conditions, typically linked with colder-than-normal winters, will develop towards the end of this year.

According to the latest updates from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts, there is a 55% chance of transitioning from neutral conditions to La Nina between September and November 2024. This likelihood increases to 60% from October 2024 to February 2025, with virtually no chance of an El Nino forming during that period.

La Nina, characterized by the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, usually results in intense and prolonged monsoon rains in India and colder winters in its northern regions. Despite this forecast, the India Meteorological Department has yet to confirm whether La Nina will lead to colder-than-usual winters.

The effects of La Nina vary based on its intensity, duration, development time, and interaction with other climatic factors. Generally, La Nina's impacts are opposite to those of El Nino, especially in tropical regions.

Natural climate events like La Nina and El Nino occur within the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is escalating global temperatures and altering weather patterns. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that even a short-term cooling effect from La Nina won't alter the long-term trend of rising global temperatures driven by greenhouse gas emissions.

The last nine years have been the warmest on record, even with La Nina's cooling influence from 2020 to early 2023. Despite the emergence of a strong El Nino event from June 2023 to January 2024, the past three months have seen neutral conditions prevail.

(With inputs from agencies.)