Building Kenya's Transport-Energy Resilience: Insights from Scenario-Based Planning

The study explores how Kenya can achieve its development and climate goals within the transport-energy system through co-developed scenarios, emphasizing the need for strategic policy support and the adoption of e-mobility. It highlights the role of models like TEAM-Kenya in guiding decision-making for sustainable growth.

A research led by the University of Strathclyde, in collaboration with the University of Oxford, Strathmore University, the University of Nairobi, and other institutions, explores how Kenya can simultaneously pursue its development and climate goals within the transport-energy system. As a country with minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, Kenya faces the unique challenge of dealing with the severe impacts of climate change while striving for economic growth. This study, rooted in the co-development of narrative scenarios through extensive stakeholder engagement, provides critical decision support tools for policymakers to navigate these challenges.

Kenya's Rising Transport Demands and Climate Goals

Kenya's transport sector, which is currently dominated by road transport, is responsible for the majority of the sector's greenhouse gas emissions. With the country experiencing rapid population growth, urban migration, and an expanding middle class, the demand for transport is expected to rise sharply in the coming years. This situation presents a significant challenge, as Kenya aims to become an industrialized middle-income country by 2030, while also meeting its commitments to climate mitigation under the Paris Agreement. The study underscores the importance of creating transport-energy scenarios that are tailored to the specific needs and conditions of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like Kenya. Unlike high-income countries (HICs), where transport-energy transitions have been extensively studied, LMICs face different challenges, including lower motorization rates and the need to balance economic development with equitable access to clean transportation.

Strategic Policy Support for a Sustainable Future

The research highlights that achieving these dual goals in Kenya will require strong policy support for efficient public transport and targeted initiatives to promote the electrification of road vehicles. Additionally, enhancing non-motorized transport options, such as walking and cycling, is essential to ensure equitable access to services and economic opportunities for all segments of the population. Through the involvement of 41 local experts and decision-makers, the study co-developed several scenarios that depict different potential futures for Kenya's transport-energy system. These scenarios are designed to help policymakers build robust policy and investment frameworks that support low-carbon economic growth. The research reveals that Kenya's transport-energy system can indeed meet both development and climate objectives, but this will require concerted efforts and strategic interventions.

E-Mobility: A Double-Edged Sword for Kenya

In the high e-mobility scenarios, for example, the adoption of electric vehicles could significantly reduce Kenya's fuel import bill and positively impact the country's balance of payments. However, these scenarios also present challenges, particularly in terms of fiscal impacts. The study indicates that as Kenya shifts towards e-mobility, the reduction in the consumption of petroleum fuels could lead to a decrease in taxation revenues from transport fuels. This presents a fiscal challenge for the government, which currently relies on fuel taxes as a significant source of revenue. To address this, the study suggests that policymakers will need to explore alternative revenue streams or adjust existing tax policies to accommodate the changing dynamics of the transport sector.

TEAM-Kenya: A Model for Decision-Making

The research also emphasizes the need for integrated and context-specific approaches to transport-energy transitions in LMICs. The development of strategic models, such as TEAM-Kenya, is critical in this regard. TEAM-Kenya is a transport-energy system model that has been adapted to the Kenyan context through collaboration between British and Kenyan academics. This model allows for the quantification of the impacts of different scenarios on key indicators, including vehicle stock evolution, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and taxation revenues. By providing a detailed analysis of these factors, TEAM-Kenya serves as a valuable decision-support tool for policymakers.

A Roadmap to a Sustainable Transport-Energy Future

The study concludes that while the path to low-carbon economic growth in Kenya is fraught with challenges, it is also full of opportunities. By adopting a strategic and context-specific approach to transport-energy planning, Kenya can achieve its development goals in a manner that is compatible with global climate targets. The scenarios developed in this study offer a roadmap for policymakers, guiding them in making informed decisions that will shape the future of Kenya's transport-energy system. This research not only contributes to the discourse on sustainable development in LMICs but also provides practical tools and insights that can be applied to other countries facing similar challenges.