Exit Polls: Predicting Victory with Mixed Accuracy

Exit polls accurately forecasted the NDA's win in Maharashtra but failed to predict the scale of the victory or correctly call the results in Jharkhand. While Axis MyIndia closely matched the final results in Maharashtra, it previously missed predictions in other elections, raising questions about poll accuracy.

Exit polls were largely on point in forecasting the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)'s triumph in Maharashtra, though most underestimated the magnitude of the Mahayuti coalition's success. Yet, these polls stumbled in Jharkhand, failing to accurately predict the outcome of the assembly elections.

Among pollsters, Axis MyIndia stood out by correctly predicting between 178-200 seats for the Mahayuti, and came closest to the final tally, exceeding 230 constituencies in Maharashtra's 288-seat assembly. In contrast, its forecast for Jharkhand anticipated a Congress-JMM edge over the BJP-led NDA, a prediction that opposed most other surveys.

This follows Axis MyIndia's mixed track record, having inaccurately gauged previous Lok Sabha and Haryana assembly elections, contrasted by a rare on-target call for the U.S. elections. Critiques from the Election Commission challenge the validity of exit polls, which often diverge from actual results.

(With inputs from agencies.)