Japan's Leadership Race: Unpredictable Contest for Premier

Japan's ruling party is set for an unpredictable leadership contest to replace Fumio Kishida. The candidates include Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, and Shigeru Ishiba. The winner will face challenges such as rising living costs and security issues. Polls suggest a tight race with factions no longer making predictable outcomes.

Japan's ruling party will face one of its most unpredictable leadership contests in decades on Friday, a race that could produce Japan's youngest or its first female premier, or see a long-time veteran succeed in his fifth leadership bid. This change was triggered when current premier Fumio Kishida announced his resignation in August, amid multiple scandals that drove the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) ratings to historic lows.

Among the nine candidates, three appear to have the upper hand: ex-environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43; economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; and former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67. The new leader will need to address domestic discontent over increasing living costs and navigate the complex security landscape in East Asia, which is strained by an assertive China and a nuclear-armed North Korea.

The LDP, which has governed Japan for most of the post-war period, must hold a general election by October 2025. Should Koizumi win, he plans to call a snap election as early as next month. Political analyst Yu Uchiyama believes the race is too close to call, with the result potentially undetermined until the last moment. Votes from the LDP's 368 lawmakers and an equal number of rank-and-file members will decide the outcome, with a run-off poll likely if no one secures a simple majority in the first round.

(With inputs from agencies.)