Japan's Unpredictable Leadership Contest: A Battle for Change

Japan's ruling party is set for a significant leadership contest that could see the nation's youngest or first female premier elected. The race, prompted by current Premier Fumio Kishida's resignation amid scandals, involves key figures such as Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, and Shigeru Ishiba.

Japan's ruling party is preparing for one of the most unpredictable leadership contests in decades, a race that could usher in Japan's youngest or first female premier, or see a popular veteran succeed in his fifth and final leadership bid.

The leadership race was triggered in August when current premier Fumio Kishida announced his resignation following a series of scandals that plummeted the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) ratings. Polls indicate three frontrunners in this nine-candidate field: Shinjiro Koizumi, ex-environment minister and political dynasty heir; economic security minister Sanae Takaichi; and former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba.

The winner will face critical challenges, including domestic discontent over rising living costs and a fraught security environment in East Asia, with threats from an increasingly aggressive China and a nuclear-armed North Korea. The LDP, which has dominated Japan's post-war political landscape, must hold a general election by October 2025. Koizumi has promised a snap election if he wins, potentially as soon as next month.

"It's safe to assume that Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi will do quite well, but I really cannot say who out of those three will win the race," said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at Tokyo University. "I don't think we'll know until the very last moment."

The result from the ballot, which includes votes from the LDP's 368 lawmakers and an equal number of rank-and-file members, is expected around 1420 JST (0520 GMT). If no candidate secures a simple majority, a run-off will be held between the top two contenders.

In the run-off, each lawmaker gets one vote, but rank-and-file influence drops to 47 votes, one for each of Japan's prefectures. This result is due at 1530 JST (0630 GMT). While party factions traditionally influenced outcomes, their recent disbanding due to a donations scandal makes predictions difficult.

Koizumi, son of a former prime minister, leads among lawmakers but some of his reform pledges may have reduced his grassroots support. Ishiba, popular with the rank-and-file, has previously failed in four bids for leadership but vows this will be his last attempt. Takaichi, a nationalist and advocate of Abenomics, could become Japan's first female premier, challenging the male-dominated political landscape.

Takaichi has criticized the Bank of Japan's interest rate policies and her election might prompt a yen sell-off. Her stance on visiting the contentious Yasukuni shrine could strain relations with China and South Korea.

The last leader to visit the shrine, memorializing war dead including convicted war criminals, was Shinzo Abe in 2013.

(With inputs from agencies.)