Far-Right Surge: AfD Poised for Historic Victory in Eastern Germany

Germans are heading to the polls in two eastern states with the far-right AfD likely to secure an unprecedented state election win. Chancellor Scholz's coalition faces potential losses, complicated further by the rise of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. This could impact the political landscape leading up to the federal elections.

Germans head to the polls in two eastern states on Sunday, with the far-right AfD on track to win a state election for the first time, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition set to face significant setbacks just a year before federal elections.

The Alternative for Germany is polling at 30% in Thuringia and is neck-and-neck with the conservatives in Saxony at 30-32%. If victorious, it would be the first time since World War Two that a far-right party holds the most seats in a German state parliament. However, even with a win, the AfD is unlikely to form a state government due to a lack of majority and other parties' refusal to collaborate.

A strong performance by the AfD and another populist party, the newly-created Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), would complicate coalition building. Both parties have strong support in the former Communist-run East, driven by concerns over the cost of living, the Ukraine war, and immigration. A recent deadly stabbing spree linked to Islamic State has amplified immigration concerns, fueling criticism of government policies. "Our freedoms are being increasingly restricted," said AfD's Thuringia leader Bjoern Hoecke, a polarizing figure recently convicted for using a Nazi slogan.

All three parties in Scholz's federal coalition are expected to lose votes, with the Greens and Free Democrats trailing. Analysts predict that a rout in the East would escalate tensions in Berlin. Scholz's coalition is unlikely to disband before the 2025 federal election, despite internal strife. The BSW's rise, posing a significant threat to Scholz's Social Democrats, could secure 12-20% of the vote and a potential kingmaker role in both states. The AfD and BSW together are anticipated to capture 40-50% of the vote, highlighting enduring East-West divides.

(With inputs from agencies.)