Spain's Socialists upset independence dreams of separatists in Catalonia's election

Illa's Socialists will also need to form a coalition to reach 68 seats but separatist parties have until now rejected the suggestion they might help the national ruling party to form a government in Catalonia. Instead, Illa might attempt to form an unorthodox alliance that would include not only far-left Sumar, its coalition partner in national government, but also the conservative People’s Party and far-right Vox, with whom the socialists have long said they would not negotiate.

Spain's Socialists won the biggest share of the vote in Sunday's Catalan elections, dealing a decisive blow to more than a decade of separatist leadership and the

independence dreams still nursed by some in the wealthy northeastern region.

The Socialists, led locally by Salvador Illa, had 42 seats in the 135-seat chamber with more than 95% of the vote counted, while hardline separatist party Junts was in second place with 35 seats, and the incumbent more moderate separatist party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) had 20 seats. Spain's largest opposition party, the conservative People's Party, also had a good night, seeing the biggest increase since the last vote in 2021 from three seats to 15 on Sunday.

The result looks to be an existential threat for separatist leadership in Catalonia which included a 2017 unilateral independence referendum and declaration of independence that caused Spain's worst institutional crisis in more than 30 years. It also represents a

vindication of Spain's Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's controversial bid to normalise relations with restive Catalonia, including issuing pardons for convictions over the independence drive and, more recently, a controversial

amnesty including others still facing prosecution.

The ERC which has led the region since 2021 elections lost 13 seats, and the separatist parties combined of the ERC, Junts, far-left CUP and far-right Alianca Catalana, do not have the required 68 seats to be able to form a coalition government. Illa's Socialists will also need to form a coalition to reach 68 seats but separatist parties have until now rejected the suggestion they might help the national ruling party to form a government in Catalonia.

Instead, Illa might attempt to form an unorthodox alliance that would include not only far-left Sumar, its coalition partner in national government, but also the conservative People's Party and far-right Vox, with whom the socialists have long said they would not negotiate. If post-election negotiations fail to produce an agreement by August, a repeat election would take place in October.

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