Economic Boosts and Public Health Risks: The Dual Impact of Rohingya Refugees on Bangladesh

Researchers from the World Bank found that hosting the Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, led to increased economic activity and aid benefits but also heightened health and safety concerns for the local communities. The study calls for more sustainable policies to integrate refugees into the local economy.

Researchers from the World Bank’s Development Research Group have conducted an in-depth analysis of the socioeconomic consequences of hosting the displaced Rohingya population in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. The study, authored by Alvin Etang Ndip, Sandra V. Rozo, Maria Jose Urbina, and Christina Wieser, examines the complex effects on local communities following the 2017 influx of nearly one million Rohingya refugees.

Measuring the Impact: A Methodical Approach

Utilizing a difference-in-differences methodology, the researchers compared areas and individuals at varying distances from the refugee camps before and after the Rohingya arrived. The study employed remote sensing data and individual-level surveys to assess the impact on night light density, deforestation, labor markets, and public services. This comprehensive approach provided a nuanced understanding of how proximity to the camps has influenced local development dynamics. The findings reveal that proximity to the camps significantly increased night light density by 1.7% and marginally expanded deforestation by 0.02%. This suggests a modest boost in local economic activity, though the increase in night light density far outpaced the rise in deforestation. Additionally, land use patterns shifted, with a decrease in dense-open forests and an increase in grass and crop-covered land.

Socioeconomic Shifts: Employment and Aid

On a more granular level, the presence of the Rohingya and the accompanying humanitarian aid led to significant shifts in the local economy. The study found that closer proximity to the camps was associated with higher job formality, greater access to aid, and improved food consumption among the host communities. Specifically, individuals living closer to the camps were more likely to receive food aid and household items, and there was a notable increase in the variety of food consumed. The researchers attributed these positive outcomes largely to the activities of humanitarian organizations, which played a crucial role in supporting both the refugees and the local population.

However, these benefits were not without drawbacks. The influx of aid and formal employment opportunities also led to some displacement in the local labor market, with more people employed by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and fewer working in traditional sectors. This shift reflects the broader impact of humanitarian efforts on local economies, where the presence of large-scale aid operations can reshape employment patterns and create dependencies on external support.

Health and Safety Concerns: A Double-Edged Sword

While the economic benefits of hosting the Rohingya were evident, the study also highlighted several negative consequences for the host communities, particularly in terms of health and safety. The proximity to the camps was associated with a higher prevalence of viral diseases such as diarrhea, fever, and cough. Specifically, living closer to the camps was linked to a 2.1% increase in diarrhea, a 3.7% increase in fever, and a 2.7% increase in cough. These findings suggest that the concentration of a large, vulnerable population in refugee camps, combined with the challenges of overcrowded living conditions and limited healthcare resources, has exacerbated public health issues in the surrounding areas.

In addition to health concerns, the study also revealed heightened safety issues among the host communities. Residents living near the camps reported increased fears of serious injuries, combat situations, and other violent encounters. The data showed that these safety concerns were significantly more pronounced in areas closer to the camps, reflecting the complex and often tense relationship between the host communities and the displaced population.

Policy Implications: Toward Sustainable Solutions

The research suggests that the positive economic effects of hosting the Rohingya population largely stem from the presence and efforts of humanitarian organizations, rather than from sustainable local integration. This reliance on external aid raises critical questions about the long-term viability of current hosting arrangements. The study concludes by emphasizing the unsustainable nature of a hosting approach that relies heavily on humanitarian aid without integrating refugees into the local economy. The researchers argue for a more development-oriented policy that would allow forced migrants to generate their own income, reducing their long-term dependency on aid and potentially mitigating the associated safety and health risks for host communities.

This research contributes to the broader literature on the socioeconomic effects of refugee camps, particularly in the Global South, by providing robust evidence from the case of the Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh. It underscores the need for policies that go beyond short-term humanitarian relief and focus on creating sustainable economic opportunities for both refugees and host communities. As conflicts and forced migrations continue to pose global challenges, the findings of this study offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to balance humanitarian obligations with the need for long-term development.