Unlocking Healthy Longevity: Tackling Aging Populations and Non-Communicable Diseases

The World Bank's 2024 report emphasizes the urgent need for countries to address aging populations and rising non-communicable diseases (NCDs) through early interventions and a life-course approach. It highlights cost-effective strategies, such as fiscal policies and healthcare investments, to improve health outcomes, reduce poverty, and promote healthy longevity globally.

The World Bank’s 2024 report, Unlocking the Power of Healthy Longevity: Demographic Change, Non-communicable Diseases, and Human Capital, presents a pressing call for countries to address the growing challenge of aging populations and the associated rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The report underlines how demographic shifts, such as declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, are reshaping global populations, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and creating significant socio-economic pressures. With these shifts, many countries are witnessing a sharp rise in the number of middle-aged and elderly people, which brings both opportunities and challenges. As life expectancy increases, the number of people suffering from NCDs like cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancer has surged, accounting for over 70 percent of deaths in LMICs. These diseases not only reduce life expectancy but also place immense financial and caregiving burdens on families and healthcare systems. The World Bank’s report emphasizes that without concerted efforts, these trends will worsen poverty and inequality, trapping vulnerable populations in cycles of disease and economic hardship.

A Life-Course Approach to Health

The report draws attention to the critical need for countries to adopt a life-course approach to health, which focuses on early intervention and sustained action throughout a person’s life. This approach includes addressing risk factors for NCDs, such as smoking, obesity, and harmful alcohol use, which often take root in adolescence and young adulthood. The World Bank stresses that interventions must start early in life to prevent these behaviors and the subsequent development of chronic diseases. It also points to the broader social and economic implications of aging populations, noting that countries must implement policies that support healthy aging, including long-term care services and social protection systems that can accommodate older adults. The report calls for strategic investments in human capital—people’s health, knowledge, and skills—throughout the life course to ensure that older populations remain productive and engaged in society for as long as possible. These investments will be essential to maintaining economic growth and social stability as the global population ages.

The Economic Value of Avoidable Mortality (EVAM)

A key feature of the report is the introduction of the Economic Value of Avoidable Mortality (EVAM), a new analysis that quantifies the economic and human capital benefits of reducing premature deaths from NCDs. The World Bank’s research shows that by implementing cost-effective interventions to prevent and treat NCDs, countries could avert millions of premature deaths and generate significant economic gains. For example, the report estimates that if LMICs can achieve ambitious yet feasible rates of progress, the world could avert 25 million deaths annually by 2050, halving the number of avoidable deaths and helping to meet the related Sustainable Development Goals. The EVAM analysis highlights the substantial financial returns on investment in health, showing that for every dollar spent on preventing and treating NCDs, countries could realize a benefit-cost ratio of 16 to 1.

A Menu of Practical Interventions

The report outlines a menu of practical, proven interventions that countries can implement to address NCDs, many of which are both cost-effective and scalable. These include fiscal measures, such as excise taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages, which not only generate revenue but also reduce consumption of harmful products. The report notes that tobacco taxes, in particular, are the most effective intervention for reducing smoking rates and preventing NCD-related deaths. In addition to fiscal measures, the World Bank calls for the integration of NCD prevention and treatment services into primary healthcare systems, ensuring that these services are accessible to all, especially the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Financing the Future of Healthy Aging

Financing these interventions will require significant upfront investment, particularly for LMICs, but the report emphasizes that the long-term benefits far outweigh the costs. The World Bank estimates that the total cost of implementing a comprehensive package of NCD interventions in LMICs by 2050 would be around US$220 billion, or about 7 percent of projected public spending on health. This investment would expand healthcare capacity, creating millions of new jobs in the health sector and dramatically improving access to care. The report stresses that countries must take the lead in financing these efforts, but it also acknowledges the role of international development partners in providing financial and technical support, particularly for the poorest countries.

The Global Role of Public Goods and Collaboration

In addition to national efforts, the report highlights the importance of global public goods (GPGs), such as health technologies, data systems, and knowledge-sharing networks, in accelerating progress on NCDs. The World Bank calls for increased investment in GPGs to help countries reduce the costs of NCD interventions and improve their effectiveness. It also emphasizes the need for strong international cooperation to address the global dimensions of NCDs, including their links to climate change and pandemic preparedness. The report concludes with a call for collective action, urging governments, international organizations, and the private sector to work together to unlock the potential of healthy longevity. The stakes are high, but the report makes clear that with the right investments and policies, countries can improve the health and wellbeing of their populations, reduce poverty and inequality, and build a more prosperous and equitable future.