Rapid Spread of Mpox Virus Intensifies Fiscal Strains in Sub-Saharan Africa

The mpox virus, recently declared a global health emergency, is rapidly spreading in sub-Saharan Africa. Fitch Ratings warns this could worsen fiscal pressures. Despite low confirmed case numbers, underreporting is suspected. The virus's economic impact is expected to affect consumption, production, and tourism, potentially increasing healthcare costs and inflation.

The rapid spread of the mpox virus across sub-Saharan Africa could exacerbate the fiscal pressures that many countries in the region are currently grappling with, Fitch Ratings announced on Wednesday.

The World Health Organisation recently declared the potentially deadly mpox virus a global health emergency after a new strain, clade Ib, began spreading from the Democratic Republic of Congo to neighboring states. Fitch noted in a statement that while virus outbreaks can have severe economic and fiscal consequences, the negative impact might be partially mitigated by increased funding from affluent donor nations.

According to Fitch, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda are among the nations that have reported mpox cases. Though the number of confirmed cases remains low, underreporting remains a concern. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported over 22,800 cases and 622 deaths from mpox this year across 13 African countries, up from 18,900 cases and 541 deaths a week earlier.

Fitch cautioned that a significant surge in mpox cases could primarily impact economies through reduced consumption and production. Tourism, a critical sector in Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda, could also suffer, as it accounted for 11%, 20%, and 19% respectively of total export earnings in 2022. Additionally, the outbreak could pose challenges in managing inflationary pressures, especially if food production or logistics systems are disrupted, leading to decreased tax revenues and heightened healthcare spending.

(With inputs from agencies.)