From Crisis to Clarity: Zimbabwe’s Innovative Approach to Welfare Data

Zimbabwe's continuous welfare monitoring system, developed with the World Bank and UNICEF, reveals critical insights into the pandemic's impact on education, employment, poverty, and food security. The data underscores the importance of real-time monitoring in policymaking and crisis management, demonstrating the need for ongoing, flexible, and cost-effective data collection to navigate future shocks.

Harare, Zimbabwe - In an era where real-time data is more crucial than ever, Zimbabwe is making strides to ensure it is not left behind. The Zimbabwe Statistics Office (ZIMSTAT), with significant support from the World Bank and UNICEF, has embarked on a groundbreaking journey to establish a continuous welfare monitoring system. This initiative, sparked by the socioeconomic upheaval caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, offers a blueprint for how nations can adapt to ever-changing circumstances and safeguard their populations.

Education in Crisis: The Impact on School Enrollment and Remote Learning

When COVID-19 struck, Zimbabwe, like many other nations, had to make the difficult decision to close schools to curb the virus's spread. From March to September 2020, classrooms across the country were silent. This extended closure led to a concerning 9% dropout rate, underscoring the pandemic's harsh impact on education. The data, derived from nine rounds of high-frequency phone surveys conducted from July 2020 to January 2023, revealed a stark urban-rural divide in remote learning engagement. Urban students had better access to educational resources and support, whereas their rural counterparts struggled, highlighting a significant inequality in education access exacerbated by the pandemic.

Employment Woes: Navigating Job Loss and Recovery

Lockdown measures brought swift and severe job losses, with over 20% of employed individuals suddenly finding themselves out of work. The recovery was uneven, with urban areas rebounding faster than rural ones. By early 2021, tentative signs of economic resumption emerged, but it took until January 2023 for employment levels to fully recover in urban areas. Rural areas, however, saw fluctuating recovery rates, pointing to deeper structural issues in the rural economy.

Poverty and Food Security: A Rollercoaster Ride

Poverty levels saw a dramatic increase, with food poverty rising from 38% in 2019 to 49% in September 2020. This spike was driven by inflation, income losses, and poor agricultural output. However, as economic activities resumed and agricultural yields improved, poverty rates began to decline, reaching 42% by 2022. The survey highlighted how food security fluctuated with the agricultural seasons and external shocks, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted food supplies and prices globally.

Social Assistance and Vaccine Rollout: Bridging Gaps

Despite government efforts to expand social assistance during the pandemic, coverage remained limited, especially in rural areas. The survey showed higher emergency cash transfer coverage in urban regions, aligning with government initiatives to support urban households more extensively.

The vaccine rollout also exhibited an initial urban-rural divide, with urban residents gaining quicker access to vaccines. By early 2022, approximately 80% of respondents had received at least one dose, and the urban-rural gap had significantly narrowed. The decline in vaccine hesitancy, from 18% to just 5%, mirrored the expanding coverage and increasing public trust in the vaccination process.

Innovative Programs and Economic Adjustments

The Pfumvudza/Intwasa program, aimed at improving agricultural productivity and food security, saw about half the national population participating. Yet, there were gaps in receiving necessary training and extension services. Nevertheless, a significant majority of participants reported higher yields and a willingness to continue with the program.

On the economic front, the survey shed light on the currency usage trends amid the local currency's depreciation. By late 2022, about 75% of transactions were conducted in foreign currencies, revealing a substantial shift towards de facto dollarization.

A Path Forward

The high-frequency household survey has proven the necessity and feasibility of a continuous welfare monitoring system in Zimbabwe. National ownership, a flexible survey structure, and cost-effectiveness were key to its success. This initiative not only provided critical data during the pandemic but also laid the groundwork for ongoing monitoring that can inform policy decisions and improve responsiveness to future shocks.

As Zimbabwe moves forward, this continuous monitoring system will be essential in navigating economic reforms, addressing inequalities, and ensuring that the country is better prepared for any future crises.