U.S. Oil Production to Peak and Decline: EIA’s Forecast

U.S. oil production is expected to peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027, before declining to 11.3 million barrels by 2050, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The shale boom's end challenges President Trump’s vision of enhanced domestic supply, with forecasts affected by trade tensions and post-pandemic recovery.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day by 2027, maintaining this level until the decade's end, before experiencing a rapid decline. This forecast marks a pivotal shift for the world's largest oil producer, with output expected to reduce to approximately 11.3 million barrels per day by 2050.

This development suggests the nearly two-decade-long U.S. shale boom is nearing its conclusion, posing a challenge to President Donald Trump's aspirations for increased domestic oil supply. Additionally, Trump's imposition of sweeping tariffs has dissuaded shale drillers, who are confronted with escalating costs for steel and equipment.

The EIA also revised its forecasts for global oil demand and U.S. oil output for 2025, noting the anticipated end of post-pandemic recovery in U.S. oil demand. The agency also adjusted its price forecasts, with Brent crude expected to average $67.87 per barrel for the year.

(With inputs from agencies.)