UPDATE 2-Russian pipeline gas and LNG exports to Europe up 18-20% in 2024, Novak says

A five-year gas transit deal between Moscow and Kyiv that has seen Russian exports flow via Ukraine despite the war, expires at the end of the year and Ukraine has said it won't renew the arrangement. Around half of Russian gas to Europe flows via the Ukrainian route.

Total exports of Russian gas to European countries have so far been 18-20% higher this year than in 2023, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday.

In January to November, supplies of pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exceeded 50 billion cubic metres, Novak said. "Despite all the statements and sanctions pressure because gas is a highly ecological product, it is in demand. And Russian gas is the most cost-efficient, both in terms of logistics and the price," he said on state TV station Rossiya-24.

The increase was from a very low base in 2023, when Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe plummeted by 55.6% to 28.3 bcm as Moscow's relations with the West sharply deteriorated due to the Ukraine conflict. Supplies are expected to recover to around 32 bcm this year, according to Reuters calculations based on state-controlled gas giant Gazprom's daily exports and statistics from European gas pipeline operators.

Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe face serious challenges. A five-year gas transit deal between Moscow and Kyiv that has seen Russian exports flow via Ukraine despite the war, expires at the end of the year and Ukraine has said it won't renew the arrangement.

Around half of Russian gas to Europe flows via the Ukrainian route. The rest is supplied through the TurkStream pipeline on the bed of the Black Sea. Novak reiterated Russia was ready to supply gas to Europe via several routes and that Ukraine and Europe should agree between themselves on the Russian gas transit.

"To date, the issue has not been resolved, although Europeans and European countries are interested in this (Ukrainian gas route). But this depends primarily on the agreement between the European Union and Kyiv on the possibility of such supplies," Novak said. Supplies of Russia's seaborne super cool LNG have been on the rise, however, with Europe taking around half of such exports.

The EU has no imminent plans to stop buying Russian LNG, but has said it will try to wean itself off Russian gas by 2027 thanks to rising imports from Norway, the United States and Qatar. Novak said that Russia's LNG exports in 2024 are seen at around 33 million tons, on par with 32.9 million tons supplied last year.

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